Viktor Arvidsson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 67?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points27 × 0.5+13.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots243 × 0.1+24.3
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1560 × 0.01+15.6
- total163 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242163 = 67/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 163 points is 67 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 10.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.5% shooting on 55 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (1339 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD +3.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Predators | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Predators | 56 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:24 | 3 | 0 | 139 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Predators | 80 | 31 | 30 | 61 | 16 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 17:09 | 6 | 1 | 246 | 12.6% | 25.0% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 78 | 29 | 32 | 61 | 20 | 36 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 17:45 | 6 | 1 | 247 | 11.7% | 33.3% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 58 | 34 | 14 | 48 | 12 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 19:09 | 7 | 0 | 195 | 17.4% | 11.8% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 57 | 15 | 13 | 28 | -4 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16:12 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 11.8% | 57.9% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 50 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 9 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16:36 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 6.6% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 66 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16:59 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 8.8% | 36.4% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 77 | 26 | 33 | 59 | -4 | 24 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 17:06 | 2 | 0 | 228 | 11.4% | 40.3% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 18 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:42 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 10.2% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 67 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -3 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:00 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 9.5% | 32.7% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 69 | 25 | 29 | 54 | 20 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 14:36 | 6 | 0 | 175 | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 18:33 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 14.3% | 38.5% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 27 | 27 | 54 | — | 33 | — | 15 | — | 17:15 | — | — | 197 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Rickard Rakell (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 01:26 | EV | Assist | DeBrincat (Arvidsson, Faulk) → 2-1 | Compher · Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Rasmussen · Leonard · Finnie Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk · Vilmanis Kulikov · Gudas · Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 07:31 | EV | Goal | Arvidsson (Wallinder, DeBrincat) → 1-1 | Arvidsson · Finnie · DeBrincat Wallinder · Faulk | Moore · Kane · Nazar Rinzel · Kaiser Knight (G) |
| P3 01:09 | PP | Assist | Raymond (Seider, Arvidsson) → 2-1 | Raymond · Arvidsson · Finnie · DeBrincat Seider | Greenway · Smith Cole · Vlasic Knight (G) |
| P3 15:26 | EV | Goal | Arvidsson (DeBrincat, Compher) → 3-1 | Arvidsson · Compher · DeBrincat Englund · Johansson | Kantserov · Kane · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| P3 16:45 | EV | Goal | Arvidsson (Finnie) → 4-1 | Arvidsson · Finnie · DeBrincat Wallinder · Faulk | Bertuzzi · Kantserov · Teravainen · Kane · Nazar · Bedard |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Viktor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat DET | 122 | 10 | |
| Emmitt Finnie DET | 108 | 10 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 103 | 10 | |
| Lucas Raymond DET | 75 | 10 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats