Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists35 × 1+35
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots130 × 0.1+13
- PIM42 × 0.05+2.1
- ice time (min)1081 × 0.01+10.8
- total90 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24290 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 90 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 2.2 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 3.2% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.6% (732 shots before this season) — that's 2.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.0 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.4%, worth PD −2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 41 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 10.0% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 37 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 54 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 71 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 7.1% | 64.3% |
| 2020-21 | Golden Knights | 52 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 9.2% | 37.5% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 63 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 7.5% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 56 | 16 | 9 | 25 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 7 | 0 | 118 | 13.6% | 12.5% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 39 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 9.2% | 46.7% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 43 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 8.3% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 70 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 2 | 0 | 80 | 8.8% | 38.9% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 3.2% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 9 | 35 | 45 | — | 42 | — | 0 | — | 13:44 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Luke Evangelista (2025-25) · Ryan McLeod (2025-25) · Kaapo Kakko (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 04:43 | EV | Assist | Svechnikov (Carrier) → 5-0 | Carrier · Ehlers · Aho · Svechnikov · Stankoven · Blake Walker · Miller | Bertuzzi · Nazar · Bedard · Moore · Kantserov · Frondell Vlasic · Kaiser · Rinzel · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| P2 10:36 | EV | Assist | Aho (Walker, Carrier) → 6-0 | Martinook · Carrier · Aho · Robinson · Kotkaniemi · Svechnikov Gostisbehere · Walker · Miller · Nikishin | Bertuzzi · Greenway · Smith · Bedard · Kantserov · Boucher Cole · Kaiser · Korchinski · Levshunov Knight (G) · Soderblom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 06:44 | EV | Assist | Svechnikov (Aho, Carrier) → 3-2 | Carrier · Ehlers · Aho · Svechnikov · Stankoven · Blake Walker · Miller | Palmieri · Cizikas · Horvat · MacLean · Holmstrom · Chaffee Pelech · DeAngelo · Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
| P3 14:52 | EV | Goal | Carrier (Svechnikov, Aho) → 4-3 | Carrier · Ehlers · Aho · Svechnikov · Stankoven · Blake Slavin · Chatfield · Walker · Miller | Schenn · Palat · Pageau · Duclair · Heineman · Eklund Pelech · DeAngelo · Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs BOS | |||||
| P3 10:19 | EV | Assist | Aho (Carrier, Svechnikov) → 2-1 | Aho · Carrier · Svechnikov Chatfield · Miller · Slavin | Peterka · Zacha · Pastrnak Lohrei · Brunet Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with William over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho CAR | 112 | 10 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov CAR | 109 | 10 | |
| Jaccob Slavin CAR | 69 | 10 | |
| Jalen Chatfield CAR | 68 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats