Zach Bogosian
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 26?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals4 × 3+12
- proj assists7 × 1+7
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1399 × 0.01+14
- total43 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16643 = 26/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 43 points is 26 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 16 of 17 for MIN — missed 1 game (2026-10-10).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.3% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.2% (493 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.4%, worth PD +0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | Thrashers | 47 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 18:06 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2009-10 | Thrashers | 81 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -18 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21:25 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2010-11 | Thrashers | 71 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -27 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22:24 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Jets | 65 | 5 | 25 | 30 | -3 | 71 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:19 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Jets | 33 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23:07 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Jets | 55 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:55 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Jets | 41 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:10 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Sabres | 21 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -7 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26:34 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 64 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -11 | 68 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 22:21 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 56 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -17 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:05 | 1 | 1 | 73 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 65 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -5 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21:38 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 19 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 45 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 48 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 46 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 1.9% | 100.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 61 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 81 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -6 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 41 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 4 | 7 | 11 | — | 41 | — | 0 | — | 17:35 | — | — | 92 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Travis Dermott (2023-23) · Dmitry Kulikov (2025-25) · Robert Bortuzzo (2023-23) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Jeremy Lauzon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 03:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Hartman, Bogosian) → 3-2 | Hartman · Kaprizov Bogosian · Kiersted | Tavares · Nylander · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs SJS | |||||
| P3 13:58 | EV | Goal | #? (Ek, Kaprizov) → 4-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Maatta | Marchment · Sherwood · Graf Trouba · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zach over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olli Maatta MIN | 63 | 7 | |
| Blake Coleman MIN | 56 | 10 | |
| Yakov Trenin MIN | 55 | 10 | |
| Danila Yurov MIN | 52 | 10 | |
| Bobby Brink MIN | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats