Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1519 × 0.01+15.2
- total120 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242120 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 120 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (9 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 8 of 16 for EDM — missed 8 games (2026-10-31, 2026-11-01, 2026-11-03, 2026-11-05, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.8% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.8% (1661 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Maple Leafs | 16 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 10.8% | 33.3% |
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:42 | 3 | 0 | 156 | 6.4% | 37.9% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 15 | 25 | 40 | 22 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:21 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 10.1% | 42.9% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 71 | 21 | 20 | 41 | 16 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:17 | 4 | 0 | 144 | 14.6% | 47.7% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 51 | 21 | 16 | 37 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 19:06 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 19.8% | 43.8% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 43 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 19 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 19:22 | 4 | 0 | 115 | 13.0% | 32.7% |
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 76 | 27 | 27 | 54 | -9 | 36 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 19:28 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 12.7% | 48.2% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 79 | 36 | 47 | 83 | 13 | 39 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 20:09 | 3 | 0 | 276 | 13.0% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 80 | 54 | 23 | 77 | 36 | 48 | 15 | 20 | 0 | 19:30 | 7 | 1 | 290 | 18.6% | 43.8% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 73 | 27 | 17 | 44 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 18:53 | 7 | 1 | 210 | 12.9% | 40.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 58 | 31 | 21 | 52 | 13 | 28 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 19:59 | 2 | 1 | 159 | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:05 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 20 | 17 | 37 | — | 33 | — | 15 | — | 16:25 | — | — | 155 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 04:13 | EV | Goal | #? (Ekholm, Dach) → 1-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Dach Ekholm · Bouchard | Couturier · Tippett · Barkey Sanheim · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| P2 14:03 | PP | Goal | #? (McDavid, Bouchard) → 2-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid Bouchard | Couturier · Acciari Sanheim · York Vladar (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 19:15 | EV | Assist | #? (McDavid, Hyman) → 4-2 | Hyman · McDavid Murphy · Shea | Boeser · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Hronek Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 17 · @ UTA | |||||
| P1 13:21 | PP | Goal | Hyman (McDavid, Podkolzin) → 2-0 | Hyman · Draisaitl · McDavid · Podkolzin Bouchard | Crouse · Stenlund Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zach over the last 5 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasperi Kapanen EDM | 54 | 5 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 45 | 5 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 44 | 5 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM | 36 | 3 | |
| Colton Dach EDM | 36 | 3 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats