Colton Sissons
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1228 × 0.01+12.3
- total72 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24272 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 72 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 13:31/game over the last 6, down 15% from 15:49 earlier in the season.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Did not play the last 2 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 14 of 16 for TOR — missed 2 games (2026-11-10, 2026-11-12).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.5% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.0% (680 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.6%, worth PD −0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Predators | 17 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7.7% | 48.6% |
| 2015-16 | Predators | 34 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 16.0% | 56.0% |
| 2016-17 | Predators | 58 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:07 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 19.1% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 81 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16:06 | 4 | 0 | 120 | 7.5% | 55.3% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 75 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 20 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:03 | 3 | 1 | 111 | 13.5% | 53.1% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 57 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:20 | 2 | 0 | 52 | 17.3% | 51.3% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 54 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:21 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 13.8% | 54.0% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 79 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16:10 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 8.0% | 55.7% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 82 | 12 | 18 | 30 | -4 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15:50 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 13.8% | 53.5% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 81 | 15 | 20 | 35 | -6 | 38 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 16:34 | 2 | 0 | 131 | 11.5% | 52.6% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 72 | 7 | 14 | 21 | -12 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 8.8% | 54.8% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 66 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:30 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 8.1% | 56.5% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10.5% | 59.9% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 11 | 17 | 28 | — | 28 | — | 1 | — | 14:50 | — | — | 111 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jason Dickinson (2025-25) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Mathieu Joseph (2025-25) · Colin Blackwell (2025-25) · Colton Sissons (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs MTL | |||||
| P3 07:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Joshua, Sissons) → 2-3 | Sissons · Joshua Ekman-Larsson · Stecher | Kreider · Evans · Beck Carrier · Guhle Fowler (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 02:26 | EV | Assist | Nylander (Rielly, Sissons) → 2-1 | Sissons · Nylander · Marchenko Rielly · Stecher | Olivier · Sillinger · Belluz Werenski · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs SJS | |||||
| P3 19:20 | EV | Assist | Paul (Matthews, Sissons) → 3-1 | Sissons · Paul · Matthews McCabe · Raddysh | Marchment · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Orlov Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Colton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCabe TOR | 63 | 10 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 59 | 10 | |
| Gavin McKenna TOR | 58 | 10 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 52 | 10 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats