Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 49?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots146 × 0.1+14.6
- PIM106 × 0.05+5.3
- ice time (min)1858 × 0.01+18.6
- total81 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16681 = 49/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 81 points is 49 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.1% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.1% (1427 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.5%, worth PD +0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Panthers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Panthers | 60 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Panthers | 64 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -3 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:58 | 2 | 0 | 79 | 5.1% | 100.0% |
| 2019-20 | Panthers | 45 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 54 | 6 | 30 | 36 | 29 | 45 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:07 | 1 | 0 | 101 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 80 | 8 | 36 | 44 | 40 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 23:22 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 81 | 4 | 27 | 31 | 15 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:06 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 82 | 20 | 32 | 52 | 2 | 51 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 22:56 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 81 | 8 | 39 | 47 | 18 | 33 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 24:10 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 60 | 3 | 18 | 21 | -35 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23:07 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 19 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:25 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 8 | 16 | 23 | — | 86 | — | 4 | — | 20:57 | — | — | 128 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25) · Colton Parayko (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 09:53 | EV | Assist | #? (Keller, Weegar) → 2-2 | Lee · Keller Weegar · Sergachev | Blais · Cozens · Halliday Kleven · Matinpalo Ersson (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 14:39 | EV | Assist | Lee (Weegar, Trocheck) → 3-4 | Keller · Trocheck · Yamamoto · Lee Weegar | Hagel · Cirelli · Kucherov Lilleberg · Moser Hildeby (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ SEA | |||||
| P3 07:42 | EV | Assist | Cooley (Sergachev, Weegar) → 3-3 | Schmaltz · Crouse · Cooley Weegar · Sergachev | Winterton · Meyers · Gaudreau Evans · Montour Grubauer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with MacKenzie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 145 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 71 | 10 | |
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 70 | 10 | |
| Anders Lee UTA | 64 | 10 | |
| Clayton Keller UTA | 64 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats