Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM84 × 0.05+4.2
- ice time (min)1239 × 0.01+12.4
- total91 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24291 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 91 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.1% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (1056 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.1%, worth PD −2.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 72 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -20 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:53 | 2 | 0 | 84 | 5.9% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7.7% | 27.3% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 81 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:57 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 8.4% | 41.4% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 66 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:35 | 3 | 0 | 109 | 13.8% | 51.1% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 51 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 46 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:18 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 5.7% | 46.5% |
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 65 | 20 | 14 | 34 | -9 | 52 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 17:26 | 4 | 0 | 131 | 15.3% | 33.3% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 77 | 24 | 21 | 45 | -3 | 35 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 17:45 | 3 | 0 | 151 | 15.9% | 40.2% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 81 | 23 | 19 | 42 | -7 | 36 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 16:49 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 13.5% | 31.1% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 81 | 12 | 6 | 18 | -4 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:44 | 2 | 0 | 126 | 9.5% | 46.3% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 81 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 20 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16:36 | 4 | 0 | 141 | 17.0% | 34.6% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:57 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 12 | 22 | 33 | — | 67 | — | 2 | — | 14:55 | — | — | 132 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ VGK | |||||
| P1 08:07 | EV | Goal | #? (McBain, Peeke) → 1-1 | Trocheck · McBain Peeke · Simashev | Dowd · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore Hart (G) |
| P2 16:39 | EV | Assist | #? (Crouse, Peeke) → 2-4 | Crouse · Carcone Peeke · Sergachev | Karlsson · Marner · Howden Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 14:11 | EV | Assist | Cooley (Crouse, Peeke) → 2-0 | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Schmidt · Peeke | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Karlsson · Stastney Silovs (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 06:00 | EV | Assist | Keller (Crouse, Schmaltz) → 1-1 | Schmaltz · Crouse · Keller Weegar · Sergachev | Crosby · Rust · Chinakhov Karlsson · Stastney Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Lawson over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 73 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 71 | 10 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 62 | 10 | |
| Logan Cooley UTA | 59 | 8 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats