Vincent Trocheck
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots141 × 0.1+14.1
- PIM49 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1474 × 0.01+14.7
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 19:23/game over the last 6, up 17% from 16:34 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.4% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.2% (1346 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.6%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Panthers | 20 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18:53 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 13.2% | 47.7% |
| 2014-15 | Panthers | 50 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 9 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 7.9% | 48.6% |
| 2015-16 | Panthers | 76 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 15 | 44 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 17:46 | 4 | 0 | 174 | 14.4% | 49.5% |
| 2016-17 | Panthers | 82 | 23 | 31 | 54 | -13 | 43 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 20:50 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 10.0% | 50.2% |
| 2017-18 | Panthers | 82 | 31 | 44 | 75 | -9 | 54 | 13 | 27 | 3 | 21:22 | 5 | 0 | 287 | 10.8% | 54.1% |
| 2018-19 | Panthers | 55 | 10 | 24 | 34 | -9 | 54 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 19:40 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 6.3% | 51.8% |
| 2019-20 | Panthers | 55 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -3 | 33 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 16:52 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 7.8% | 52.3% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:39 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8.3% | 51.2% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 47 | 17 | 26 | 43 | -3 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 18:14 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 13.8% | 56.0% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 81 | 21 | 30 | 51 | 21 | 78 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 17:52 | 3 | 0 | 168 | 12.5% | 54.6% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 82 | 22 | 42 | 64 | 3 | 58 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 19:19 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 9.8% | 56.1% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 82 | 25 | 52 | 77 | 16 | 55 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 21:27 | 5 | 1 | 215 | 11.6% | 58.7% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 82 | 26 | 33 | 59 | 0 | 44 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 21:06 | 7 | 1 | 202 | 12.9% | 59.3% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 67 | 16 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 64 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 20:33 | 1 | 0 | 114 | 14.0% | 56.9% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.8% | 57.8% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 14 | 27 | 41 | — | 46 | — | 11 | — | 16:38 | — | — | 143 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Chandler Stephenson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 01:42 | EV | Assist | #? (#?, Trocheck) → 1-0 | Trocheck · Guenther DeSimone · Simashev | Kreider · Evans · Texier Xhekaj · Engstrom Dobes (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 14:24 | EV | Assist | #? (Trocheck, #?) → 1-1 | Trocheck · Crouse · McBain Peeke | Couturier · Acciari · Knuble York · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ PIT | |||||
| P3 19:59 | EV | Assist | Cooley (#?, Keller) → 3-3 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 14:39 | EV | Assist | Lee (Weegar, Trocheck) → 3-4 | Keller · Trocheck · Yamamoto · Lee Weegar | Hagel · Cirelli · Kucherov Lilleberg · Moser Hildeby (G) |
| P2 17:02 | EV | Assist | Simashev (Peeke, Trocheck) → 4-4 | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Peeke · Simashev | Point · Hagel · Guentzel · Cirelli McDonagh · Carlson Hildeby (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Vincent over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley UTA | 105 | 8 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 77 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 73 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 70 | 10 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 61 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats