Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1485 × 0.01+14.9
- total74 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16674 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 74 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 11.8% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.8% (389 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.3%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Schmidt 5.9%, Trocheck 9.4%, Simashev 21.1%, Crouse 7.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 22 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 11 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -14 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 80 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -41 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 23 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 76 | 1 | 16 | 17 | -10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:36 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 77 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -12 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 8 | 25 | 32 | — | 52 | — | 0 | — | 18:13 | — | — | 87 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Olli Maatta (2025-25) · Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Philip Broberg (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ VGK | |||||
| P1 08:07 | EV | Assist | #? (McBain, Peeke) → 1-1 | Trocheck · McBain Peeke · Simashev | Dowd · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore Hart (G) |
| P2 16:39 | EV | Assist | #? (Crouse, Peeke) → 2-4 | Crouse · Carcone Peeke · Sergachev | Karlsson · Marner · Howden Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 13:42 | EV | Goal | #? (Keller, Lee) → 2-1 | Lee · Keller · Hayton Schmidt | Sissons · Nylander · Joshua McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 14:11 | EV | Assist | Cooley (Crouse, Peeke) → 2-0 | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Schmidt · Peeke | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Karlsson · Stastney Silovs (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 17:02 | EV | Assist | Simashev (Peeke, Trocheck) → 4-4 | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Peeke · Simashev | Point · Hagel · Guentzel · Cirelli McDonagh · Carlson Hildeby (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Andrew over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Schmidt UTA | 62 | 7 | |
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 61 | 10 | |
| Dmitri Simashev UTA | 59 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 50 | 10 | |
| Barrett Hayton UTA | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats