Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1300 × 0.01+13
- total85 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16685 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 21.1% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.5% (26 shots before this season) — that's 2.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.3%, worth PD +3.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Peeke 11.8%, Keller 9.6%, Trocheck 9.4%, Crouse 7.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -11 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 15 | 15 | 29 | — | 29 | — | 0 | — | 16:52 | — | — | 91 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ VGK | |||||
| P3 09:07 | EV | Goal | #? (McBain, Keller) → 3-4 | Trocheck · Keller · McBain DeSimone | Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 14:24 | EV | Goal | #? (Trocheck, #?) → 1-1 | Trocheck · Crouse · McBain Peeke | Couturier · Acciari · Knuble York · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 17:02 | EV | Goal | Simashev (Peeke, Trocheck) → 4-4 | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Peeke · Simashev | Point · Hagel · Guentzel · Cirelli McDonagh · Carlson Hildeby (G) |
| P4 01:44 | EV | Goal | Simashev (Hayton, Vejmelka) → 5-4 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Trocheck · McBain · Hayton · But · Yamamoto · Crouse · Lee · Stenlund · Cooley Peeke · Simashev · Weegar · DeSimone · Schmidt · Sergachev | Point · Hagel · Guentzel Carlson · Cernak Hildeby (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dmitri over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 59 | 10 | |
| Clayton Keller UTA | 52 | 10 | |
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 47 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 43 | 10 | |
| Jack McBain UTA | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats