Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 33?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM102 × 0.05+5.1
- ice time (min)1055 × 0.01+10.6
- total80 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24280 = 33/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 80 points is 33 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (350 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.1%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15.4% | 34.0% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 82 | 12 | 14 | 26 | -8 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 14.1% | 44.0% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 67 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 14.3% | 45.2% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 82 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 8 | 78 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13:34 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 14.4% | 49.9% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 75 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 11 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:51 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 8.5% | 51.3% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 9.1% | 54.8% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 12 | 20 | 33 | — | 77 | — | 0 | — | 13:34 | — | — | 112 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2023-23) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Denis Gurianov (2022-22) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Pontus Holmberg (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ VGK | |||||
| P1 08:07 | EV | Assist | #? (McBain, Peeke) → 1-1 | Trocheck · McBain Peeke · Simashev | Dowd · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore Hart (G) |
| P2 16:39 | EV | Goal | #? (Crouse, Peeke) → 2-4 | Crouse · Carcone Peeke · Sergachev | Karlsson · Marner · Howden Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
| P3 09:07 | EV | Assist | #? (McBain, Keller) → 3-4 | Trocheck · Keller · McBain DeSimone | Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 10:10 | EV | Assist | Stenlund (Sergachev, McBain) → 2-1 | Stenlund · McBain · But Weegar · Sergachev | Malkin · Novak · Koivunen Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stenlund UTA | 57 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 52 | 10 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 48 | 10 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 45 | 10 | |
| Dmitri Simashev UTA | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats