Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists54 × 1+54
- PP points44 × 0.5+22
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots203 × 0.1+20.3
- PIM84 × 0.05+4.2
- ice time (min)2029 × 0.01+20.3
- total178 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166178 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 178 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 10.9% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.4% (1003 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.3%, worth PD +3.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Weegar 6.1%, Keller 9.6%, Trocheck 9.4%, Schmaltz 18.8%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Canadiens | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 79 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 15:22 | 5 | 0 | 141 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 75 | 6 | 26 | 32 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 17:55 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 4.7% | 50.0% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 70 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 15 | 58 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 20:22 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 56 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21:58 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 78 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22:28 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 79 | 10 | 54 | 64 | 13 | 53 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 23:49 | 2 | 0 | 156 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 34 | 2 | 17 | 19 | -16 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 22:33 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 77 | 15 | 38 | 53 | -8 | 32 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 25:07 | 3 | 2 | 132 | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 78 | 10 | 49 | 59 | 2 | 44 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 24:18 | 1 | 0 | 159 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -2 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 24:21 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 18 | 54 | 72 | — | 71 | — | 33 | — | 22:11 | — | — | 161 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Adam Fox (2025-25) · Rasmus Dahlin (2025-25) · Zach Werenski (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 09:24 | PP | Assist | #? (Schmaltz, Sergachev) → 2-0 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Sergachev | Danault · Evans Carrier · Guhle Dobes (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 19:47 | PP | Assist | #? (Sergachev, Keller) → 1-0 | Schmaltz · Keller · Cooley Sergachev | Paul · Duhaime Tanev · McCabe Bobrovsky (G) |
| P3 13:12 | PP | Assist | #? (Keller, Sergachev) → 3-2 | Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Sissons · Blueger Tanev · McCabe Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ PHI | |||||
| P3 16:00 | PP | Goal | #? (Schmaltz, Keller) → 2-5 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Cooley | Acciari · Foerster Seeler · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ PIT | |||||
| P4 03:27 | EV | Goal | Sergachev (Hayton) → 4-3 | Schmaltz · Hayton Sergachev | Crosby · Koivunen Karlsson Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mikhail over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 145 | 10 | |
| Clayton Keller UTA | 105 | 10 | |
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 77 | 10 | |
| Nick Schmaltz UTA | 73 | 9 | |
| Logan Cooley UTA | 71 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats