Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 88?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals33 × 3+99
- proj assists41 × 1+41
- PP points53 × 0.5+26.5
- game-winning goals18 × 0.5+9
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots212 × 0.1+21.2
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1438 × 0.01+14.4
- total212 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242212 = 88/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 212 points is 88 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +4.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.8% shooting on 48 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.8% (1067 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.0%, worth PD +4.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Blackhawks | 61 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:16 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 9.1% | 30.9% |
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 78 | 21 | 31 | 52 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 18:14 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 17.8% | 40.1% |
| 2018-19 | Blackhawks | 23 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 6.1% | 43.3% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 17 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 18:01 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 17.2% | 32.3% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 70 | 11 | 34 | 45 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 15:32 | 2 | 0 | 95 | 11.6% | 42.5% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 52 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -1 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17:03 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 9.5% | 42.8% |
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 63 | 23 | 36 | 59 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 18:15 | 4 | 0 | 123 | 18.7% | 47.7% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 63 | 22 | 36 | 58 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 19:43 | 2 | 0 | 132 | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 79 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -16 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 19:11 | 3 | 1 | 158 | 13.9% | 41.0% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 82 | 20 | 43 | 63 | -15 | 14 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 18:35 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 10.8% | 49.2% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 82 | 33 | 41 | 74 | 17 | 28 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 19:43 | 9 | 1 | 206 | 16.0% | 46.0% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 19 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -14 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 17:07 | 4 | 0 | 48 | 18.8% | 47.9% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 33 | 41 | 74 | — | 28 | — | 33 | — | 16:22 | — | — | 179 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25) · Kyle Connor (2025-25) · Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 09:24 | PP | Assist | #? (Schmaltz, Sergachev) → 2-0 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Sergachev | Danault · Evans Carrier · Guhle Dobes (G) |
| P3 07:14 | PP | Goal | #? (Cooley, Guenther) → 4-3 | Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Danault · Evans Carrier · Guhle Dobes (G) |
| P2 11:05 | PP | Assist | #? (Schmaltz, Keller) → 3-2 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Sergachev | Anderson · Newhook Carrier · Xhekaj Dobes (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 13:12 | PP | Goal | #? (Keller, Sergachev) → 3-2 | Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Sissons · Blueger Tanev · McCabe Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ PHI | |||||
| P3 16:00 | PP | Assist | #? (Schmaltz, Keller) → 2-5 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Cooley | Acciari · Foerster Seeler · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller UTA | 116 | 10 | |
| Dylan Guenther UTA | 88 | 9 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 82 | 10 | |
| Lawson Crouse UTA | 53 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats