Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 71?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points42 × 0.5+21
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots215 × 0.1+21.5
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1442 × 0.01+14.4
- total173 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242173 = 71/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 173 points is 71 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for UTA — missed 1 game (2026-11-11).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.0% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.4% (620 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.8%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 33 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13:07 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 11.3% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 45 | 18 | 17 | 35 | -1 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 16:17 | 4 | 1 | 121 | 14.9% | 20.7% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 70 | 27 | 33 | 60 | -4 | 26 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 17:00 | 9 | 3 | 204 | 13.2% | 34.5% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 79 | 40 | 33 | 73 | 7 | 28 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 17:24 | 6 | 3 | 242 | 16.5% | 41.3% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 18 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 17:10 | 1 | 0 | 46 | 13.0% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 27 | 31 | 58 | — | 40 | — | 32 | — | 16:22 | — | — | 180 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Gabriel Vilardi (2025-25) · Logan Cooley (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Seth Jarvis (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ MTL | |||||
| P3 07:14 | PP | Assist | #? (Cooley, Guenther) → 4-3 | Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev | Danault · Evans Carrier · Guhle Dobes (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 19:47 | PP | Goal | #? (Sergachev, Keller) → 1-0 | Schmaltz · Keller · Cooley Sergachev | Paul · Duhaime Tanev · McCabe Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 17:39 | PP | Goal | Guenther (Sergachev, Keller) → 2-3 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Yamamoto · Cooley Sergachev | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak Hildeby (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley UTA | 103 | 10 | |
| Nick Schmaltz UTA | 93 | 10 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 86 | 10 | |
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | 68 | 10 | |
| Clayton Keller UTA | 67 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats