Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots159 × 0.1+15.9
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1211 × 0.01+12.1
- total98 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24298 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 98 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for UTA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 5.6% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.8% (637 shots before this season) — that's 1.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.9 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.9%, worth PD −3.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 3.7% | 37.7% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 60 | 10 | 14 | 24 | -8 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16:07 | 1 | 0 | 82 | 12.2% | 48.1% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 82 | 19 | 24 | 43 | -5 | 42 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 17:30 | 4 | 2 | 178 | 10.7% | 51.1% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 33 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -13 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:01 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 4.5% | 49.8% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 82 | 20 | 26 | 46 | -6 | 45 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 16:06 | 7 | 0 | 155 | 12.9% | 54.1% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 67 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 54 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 15:07 | 1 | 0 | 119 | 8.4% | 52.6% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:42 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 5.4% | 52.3% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 12 | 29 | 40 | — | 28 | — | 7 | — | 14:43 | — | — | 149 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Zach Benson (2025-25) · Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Kent Johnson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 09:53 | EV | Goal | #? (Keller, Weegar) → 2-2 | Lee · Keller Weegar · Sergachev | Blais · Cozens · Halliday Kleven · Matinpalo Ersson (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ PIT | |||||
| P4 03:27 | EV | Assist | Sergachev (Hayton) → 4-3 | Schmaltz · Hayton Sergachev | Crosby · Koivunen Karlsson Silovs (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P4 01:44 | EV | Assist | Simashev (Hayton, Vejmelka) → 5-4 | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Trocheck · McBain · Hayton · But · Yamamoto · Crouse · Lee · Stenlund · Cooley Peeke · Simashev · Weegar · DeSimone · Schmidt · Sergachev | Point · Hagel · Guentzel Carlson · Cernak Hildeby (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 14:40 | EV | Assist | Yamamoto (Schmidt, Hayton) → 4-2 | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Schmidt · DeSimone | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Barrett over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee UTA | 117 | 10 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto UTA | 79 | 6 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 68 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 64 | 10 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats