Kailer Yamamoto
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 56?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points17 × 0.5+8.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots176 × 0.1+17.6
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1247 × 0.01+12.5
- total136 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242136 = 56/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 136 points is 56 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (10 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 10 of 14 for UTA — missed 4 games (2026-11-01, 2026-11-03, 2026-11-05, 2026-11-07).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.3% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.0% (471 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.8%, worth PD −0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Oilers | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Oilers | 27 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 17 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:23 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 25.0% | 100.0% |
| 2020-21 | Oilers | 52 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:22 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 81 | 20 | 21 | 41 | -1 | 40 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 16:52 | 4 | 0 | 114 | 17.5% | 33.3% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 58 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:35 | 3 | 0 | 97 | 10.3% | 46.2% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 59 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -9 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11:59 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 13.1% | 35.5% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:07 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15.4% | 100.0% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 59 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 2 | 0 | 60 | 21.7% | 41.2% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:20 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 22 | 30 | 53 | — | 39 | — | 4 | — | 15:02 | — | — | 153 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 07:02 | EV | Goal | #? → 1-1 | Hayton · Lee Peeke · Weegar · Schmidt · Sergachev | Point · Kucherov · Goncalves D'Astous · Lilleberg Hildeby (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 17:57 | PP | Assist | Trocheck (Yamamoto) → 1-1 | Trocheck · Hayton · Yamamoto · Lee Weegar | Stephenson · Winterton Evans · Montour Grubauer (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 14:40 | EV | Goal | Yamamoto (Schmidt, Hayton) → 4-2 | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Schmidt · DeSimone | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Oct 15 · @ EDM | |||||
| P1 10:38 | PP | Assist | Hayton (Yamamoto, Marino) → 1-0 | Lee · Trocheck · Yamamoto · Hayton Marino | Kapanen · Joseph Shea · Bouchard Levi (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kailer over the last 8 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton UTA | 101 | 8 | |
| Anders Lee UTA | 89 | 7 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | 46 | 8 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 42 | 8 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 38 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats