Noah Cates
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots80 × 0.1+8
- PIM24 × 0.05+1.2
- ice time (min)1115 × 0.01+11.2
- total73 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24273 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 73 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (318 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.2%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 16 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:15 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 82 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 17:46 | 5 | 0 | 107 | 12.1% | 39.5% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 59 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 7.7% | 44.5% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 78 | 16 | 21 | 37 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:53 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 14.5% | 44.6% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 82 | 18 | 29 | 47 | 26 | 44 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 16:15 | 4 | 2 | 132 | 13.6% | 45.3% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 10.0% | 47.4% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 12 | 17 | 28 | — | 31 | — | 5 | — | 13:58 | — | — | 107 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Denis Gurianov (2022-22) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Barrett Hayton (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Andreas Johnsson (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 12:49 | EV | Assist | #? (Cates, Martone) → 1-0 | Cates · Martone Sanheim · Drysdale | Lee · Carcone · Hayton Schmidt · Peeke Vejmelka (G) |
| P2 05:50 | EV | Goal | #? (Sanheim, Drysdale) → 3-1 | Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P2 09:59 | EV | Goal | Cates (Martone, #?) → 1-3 | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Seeler | Sillinger · Monahan · Garland Christiansen · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs ANA | |||||
| P3 08:17 | EV | Assist | Michkov (Martone, Cates) → 4-5 | Cates · Michkov · Martone Drysdale · Seeler | Nesterenko · Killorn · McQueen Hinds · Luneau Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Noah over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov PHI | 93 | 10 | |
| Porter Martone PHI | 81 | 10 | |
| Nick Seeler PHI | 55 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 46 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats