Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 70?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals34 × 3+102
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots116 × 0.1+11.6
- PIM32 × 0.05+1.6
- ice time (min)1355 × 0.01+13.6
- total169 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242169 = 70/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 169 points is 70 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +8.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 34.5% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (362 shots before this season) — that's 6.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 20.0%, worth PD +8.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Martone 10.0%, Cates 10.0%, Drysdale 3.7%, Bonk 6.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 80 | 26 | 37 | 63 | -18 | 46 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 16:41 | 3 | 3 | 199 | 13.1% | 46.3% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 81 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 0 | 71 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14:50 | 3 | 1 | 163 | 12.3% | 8.3% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -11 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 16:08 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 34.5% | 44.8% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 34 | 24 | 57 | — | 36 | — | 19 | — | 15:47 | — | — | 128 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Josh Doan (2025-25) · Logan Cooley (2025-25) · Cutter Gauthier (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 11:42 | EV | Assist | #? (#?, Michkov) → 2-2 | Cates · Michkov · Martone Drysdale | Joseph · Formenton · Michaels Emberson · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
| Nov 9 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 03:05 | PP | Assist | #? (Michkov, Dvorak) → 2-0 | Dvorak · Zegras · Michkov Jiricek | O'Connor · Sasson Schenn · Brisebois Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 14:24 | EV | Assist | #? (Drysdale, Michkov) → 1-3 | Barkey · Michkov Sanheim · Drysdale | Coleman · McCarron · Kaprizov Hughes · Spacek Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 12:49 | EV | Goal | #? (Cates, Martone) → 1-0 | Cates · Martone Sanheim · Drysdale | Lee · Carcone · Hayton Schmidt · Peeke Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 09:44 | PP | Goal | Michkov (Barkey, Zegras) → 2-3 | Michkov · Zegras · Foerster · Barkey Drysdale | Jenner · Wilson Liljegren · Fehérváry Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matvei over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Martone PHI | 109 | 10 | |
| Noah Cates PHI | 93 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 63 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 48 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats