Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 41?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots93 × 0.1+9.3
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)988 × 0.01+9.9
- total99 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24299 = 41/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 99 points is 41 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 25.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.7% (771 shots before this season) — that's 2.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.3%, worth PD +3.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Robinson 7.4%, Gostisbehere 7.9%, Miller 3.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Canadiens | 79 | 11 | 23 | 34 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13:44 | 2 | 0 | 134 | 8.2% | 45.7% |
| 2019-20 | Canadiens | 36 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:00 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 10.9% | 42.8% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 56 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -1 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14:48 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 5.7% | 47.9% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 66 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12:01 | 3 | 0 | 81 | 14.8% | 51.2% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 82 | 18 | 25 | 43 | 10 | 50 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 14:44 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 14.0% | 51.4% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 79 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -4 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:59 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 9.4% | 51.5% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 78 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:04 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 10.4% | 51.8% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 42 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 4.8% | 48.5% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 18 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 25.0% | 47.5% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 19 | 21 | 40 | — | 34 | — | 0 | — | 13:08 | — | — | 114 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Taylor Hall (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 19:27 | EV | Assist | Martinook (Kotkaniemi, Robinson) → 4-0 | Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi Walker · Miller | Nazar · Moore · Frondell Vlasic · Rinzel Knight (G) |
| P1 10:54 | EV | Assist | #? (Kotkaniemi, Robinson) → 3-0 | Robinson · Kotkaniemi Gostisbehere · Nikishin | Greenway · Smith · Boucher Cole · Korchinski Knight (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 03:20 | EV | Goal | Kotkaniemi (Martinook, #?) → 2-0 | Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi Walker · Miller | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs WPG | |||||
| P3 08:38 | EV | Goal | #? (Robinson, Gostisbehere) → 7-0 | Robinson · Blake Gostisbehere · Valimaki | Barron · Rosén Ferraro · Bauer · Salomonsson Stevenson (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ STL | |||||
| P2 05:05 | EV | Goal | Kotkaniemi (Martinook, Jarvis) → 2-0 | Jarvis · Martinook · Kotkaniemi Chatfield · Slavin | Dvorsky · Neighbours · Buchnevich Jiricek · Barron Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jesperi over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Robinson CAR | 75 | 10 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers CAR | 50 | 6 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere CAR | 43 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 40 | 10 | |
| Sean Walker CAR | 36 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats