Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 34?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots114 × 0.1+11.4
- PIM49 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1331 × 0.01+13.3
- total56 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16656 = 34/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 56 points is 34 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for STL — missed 1 game (2026-11-10).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.3% shooting on 23 shots against a league defenceman baseline of 6.5% — no career track record yet — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.9%, worth PD −0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Blues | 17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 5 | 14 | 20 | — | 50 | — | 3 | — | 17:11 | — | — | 108 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 14:36 | EV | Assist | #? (Neighbours, Jiricek) → 3-4 | Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki Jiricek | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs VGK | |||||
| P2 08:30 | EV | Assist | McTavish (Jiricek, Barron) → 3-1 | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish Jiricek · Barron | Holtz · Howden · Karlsson Hanifin · Coghlan Hill (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Holloway STL | 62 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 58 | 10 | |
| Robert Thomas STL | 51 | 10 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud STL | 49 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 48 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats