Alexis Lafrenière
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 74?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists38 × 1+38
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots181 × 0.1+18.1
- PIM59 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1576 × 0.01+15.8
- total179 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242179 = 74/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 179 points is 74 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.9% shooting on 43 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (846 shots before this season) — that's 3.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.7%, worth PD +5.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Zibanejad 13.5%, Fox 6.7%, Perreault 15.4%, Gavrikov 3.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 56 | 12 | 9 | 21 | -7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 4 | 1 | 67 | 17.9% | 41.9% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 79 | 19 | 12 | 31 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:59 | 4 | 0 | 110 | 17.3% | 29.2% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 81 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15:13 | 2 | 1 | 135 | 11.9% | 36.8% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 82 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 2 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17:16 | 5 | 1 | 217 | 12.9% | 25.8% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 82 | 17 | 28 | 45 | -13 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17:00 | 4 | 0 | 153 | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 82 | 24 | 33 | 57 | -7 | 20 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 17:36 | 5 | 0 | 164 | 14.6% | 23.7% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -1 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 18:46 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 20.9% | 35.3% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 30 | 38 | 68 | — | 53 | — | 20 | — | 17:25 | — | — | 165 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jared McCann (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 00:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Lafrenière, Pettersson) → 1-0 | Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Schneider | Backlund · Farabee · Coronato Hanley · Nemec Cooley (G) |
| P2 10:52 | PP | Assist | #? (Dorofeyev, Lafrenière) → 2-0 | Dorofeyev · Lafrenière · Perreault Fox | Backlund · Sharangovich Middleton · Whitecloud Cooley (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 01:35 | EV | Assist | #? (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 1-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière Robertson · Morrow | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Wood Montour · Evans Daccord (G) |
| P2 12:46 | EV | Assist | #? (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 4-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière Pettersson · Schneider | Stephenson · Winterton Montour · Dunn · Mahura Grubauer (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs LAK | |||||
| P2 13:05 | PP | Assist | Fox (Dorofeyev, Lafrenière) → 2-5 | Miller · Lafrenière · Dorofeyev · Zibanejad Fox | Armia · Haula Edmundson · Doughty Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alexis over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | 147 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 98 | 10 | |
| Gabe Perreault NYR | 90 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 66 | 10 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats