Andrew Copp
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1564 × 0.01+15.6
- total103 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242103 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 103 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.7% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.5% (970 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.8%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 2015-16 | Jets | 77 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 13.0% | 46.1% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 64 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:21 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 11.7% | 49.5% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 82 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:44 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 9.4% | 51.8% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 69 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:10 | 2 | 0 | 82 | 13.4% | 55.3% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 63 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:42 | 5 | 0 | 121 | 8.3% | 53.0% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 55 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 18:15 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 13.0% | 53.0% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 56 | 13 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 19:48 | 3 | 0 | 151 | 8.6% | 54.0% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 16 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17:01 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 25.0% | 49.6% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 82 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 18:09 | 2 | 1 | 120 | 7.5% | 49.8% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 79 | 13 | 20 | 33 | -2 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:16 | 3 | 0 | 109 | 11.9% | 53.5% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 56 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14:42 | 2 | 0 | 68 | 14.7% | 50.7% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 79 | 9 | 34 | 43 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 16:34 | 1 | 1 | 115 | 7.8% | 54.2% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18:42 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9.4% | 51.1% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 14 | 22 | 36 | — | 33 | — | 10 | — | 17:17 | — | — | 142 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Evan Rodrigues (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Nicolas Roy (2025-25) · Sam Steel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 00:17 | EV | Assist | Raymond (Copp) → 3-1 | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Seider · Wallinder | Hathaway · Bennett · Imama · Tkachuk · Tkachuk · Schwindt Kulikov · Gudas · Jones · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ STL | |||||
| P1 19:47 | EV | Goal | Copp (Chiarot, Raymond) → 1-0 | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk | Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter · Berggren · Neighbours · McTavish Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Mailloux Hofer (G) |
| P3 18:46 | EV | Assist | Seider (Raymond, Copp) → 2-3 | Copp · Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Raymond · Finnie Seider | Buchnevich · Thomas · Suter · Holloway · Neighbours · Snuggerud Parayko · Carlo · Broberg · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TBL | |||||
| P3 05:29 | PP | Assist | Compher (Copp, Faulk) → 2-3 | Copp · Compher · Kolesar · Rasmussen · Dries · Leonard · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk · Seider | Cirelli · Viel · Mikheyev · Goncalves · Geekie Hedman · D'Astous · Crozier · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P3 02:08 | PP | Assist | Faulk (Copp, Brandsegg-Nygård) → 3-2 | Copp · Compher · Kolesar · Rasmussen · Dries · Mazur · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk · Seider | Hathaway · Reinhart · Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Kulikov · Gudas · Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Andrew over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond DET | 111 | 10 | |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård DET | 103 | 10 | |
| Justin Faulk DET | 80 | 10 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 72 | 10 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 60 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats