Brayden McNabb
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 35?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1683 × 0.01+16.8
- total58 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16658 = 35/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 58 points is 35 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.7% (722 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.4%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Sabres | 25 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Sabres | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Kings | 71 | 2 | 22 | 24 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15:54 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 2015-16 | Kings | 81 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 92 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:49 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Kings | 49 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 76 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 81 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 1 | 0 | 84 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 71 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:01 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Golden Knights | 41 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 69 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 10 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 82 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 82 | 4 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 82 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 42 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:07 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 63 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 2 | 24 | 26 | — | 39 | — | 0 | — | 19:41 | — | — | 99 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Olli Maatta (2025-25) · Samuel Girard (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 17:57 | EV | Assist | Barbashev (Marner, McNabb) → 2-1 | Karlsson · Barbashev · Eichel · Marner · Connelly McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin · Lauzon | Meier · Bratt · Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Kovacevic · Chisholm Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ STL | |||||
| P3 04:08 | EV | Assist | Eichel (Barbashev, McNabb) → 2-3 | Eichel · Barbashev · Stone McNabb · Theodore | Thomas · Snuggerud · Holloway Fowler · Parayko Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brayden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore VGK | 179 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 67 | 10 | |
| Mark Stone VGK | 63 | 10 | |
| Ivan Barbashev VGK | 58 | 10 | |
| William Karlsson VGK | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats