Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1417 × 0.01+14.2
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
- Veteran card: age 38 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.7% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (1497 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.8%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-08 | Flyers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2008-09 | Flyers | 42 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:10 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 13.4% | 47.3% |
| 2009-10 | Flyers | 82 | 16 | 31 | 47 | -9 | 23 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 16:37 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 11.0% | 49.5% |
| 2010-11 | Flyers | 82 | 25 | 51 | 76 | 20 | 47 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 19:24 | 5 | 0 | 169 | 14.8% | 50.0% |
| 2011-12 | Flyers | 77 | 28 | 65 | 93 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 21:33 | 5 | 2 | 242 | 11.6% | 53.7% |
| 2012-13 | Flyers | 48 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -7 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 21:10 | 2 | 0 | 137 | 9.5% | 54.5% |
| 2013-14 | Flyers | 82 | 28 | 58 | 86 | 7 | 46 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 20:26 | 7 | 1 | 223 | 12.6% | 52.9% |
| 2014-15 | Flyers | 81 | 25 | 48 | 73 | -3 | 36 | 14 | 37 | 0 | 20:34 | 4 | 2 | 279 | 9.0% | 56.6% |
| 2015-16 | Flyers | 78 | 22 | 45 | 67 | -8 | 53 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 20:33 | 5 | 2 | 241 | 9.1% | 57.5% |
| 2016-17 | Flyers | 82 | 14 | 44 | 58 | -15 | 38 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 19:07 | 3 | 2 | 199 | 7.0% | 55.9% |
| 2017-18 | Flyers | 82 | 34 | 68 | 102 | 28 | 20 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 20:22 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 17.6% | 58.6% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 82 | 22 | 63 | 85 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 21:27 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 9.6% | 57.9% |
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 69 | 21 | 32 | 53 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 18:59 | 6 | 0 | 197 | 10.7% | 59.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 54 | 16 | 27 | 43 | -4 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18:06 | 2 | 0 | 120 | 13.3% | 59.6% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 57 | 18 | 24 | 42 | -12 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 19:14 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 11.7% | 60.9% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 18 | 3 | 20 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 18:34 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 5.9% | 57.9% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 82 | 35 | 44 | 79 | 4 | 34 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 18:48 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 16.4% | 58.3% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 82 | 21 | 43 | 64 | -14 | 26 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 20:06 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 11.5% | 58.0% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 81 | 15 | 35 | 50 | -8 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 18:12 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 10.9% | 61.5% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 82 | 14 | 35 | 49 | 20 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 16:18 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 10.1% | 63.1% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:47 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 10.3% | 63.4% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 14 | 29 | 43 | — | 23 | — | 9 | — | 16:13 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 38 that is -8%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Elias Lindholm (2025-25) · Claude Giroux (2025-25) · Casey Mittelstadt (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 06:29 | EV | Assist | Amadio (Giroux, Kleven) → 2-1 | Giroux · Cousins · Amadio · Blais · Stützle · Halliday Chabot · Spence · Kleven | O'Brien · Schmaltz · Stenlund · Carcone · McBain · Guenther Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 07:02 | EV | Goal | Giroux (Sanderson, Zub) → 2-0 | Giroux · Cousins · Amadio · Greig · Bourgault · Halliday Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo | Granlund · Nesterenko · Malott · Gauthier · Sennecke · McQueen Luneau · Mintyukov · Warren · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P1 17:37 | EV | Assist | Amadio (Giroux, Sanderson) → 3-0 | Giroux · Amadio · Zetterlund · Cozens · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Sanderson · Zub | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs NYR | |||||
| P1 06:40 | EV | Assist | #? (Zetterlund, Giroux) → 2-0 | Zetterlund · Giroux Yakemchuk · Matinpalo | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Schneider · Smits Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Claude over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Amadio OTT | 74 | 10 | |
| Jake Sanderson OTT | 59 | 8 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 58 | 10 | |
| Ridly Greig OTT | 52 | 8 | |
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats