Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 71?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots252 × 0.1+25.2
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1529 × 0.01+15.3
- total171 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242171 = 71/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 171 points is 71 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 11.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.6/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.3% shooting on 57 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (532 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Jets | 18 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:09 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 51 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 14:58 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 8.9% | 27.3% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 71 | 19 | 19 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 13:35 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 13.4% | 37.6% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 82 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 14 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 15:11 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 12.6% | 31.3% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 68 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -9 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15:37 | 3 | 1 | 136 | 8.8% | 40.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18:10 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 12.1% | 27.3% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 25 | 33 | 58 | — | 28 | — | 18 | — | 17:02 | — | — | 201 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jack Quinn (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Leo Carlsson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 13:55 | EV | Assist | Mercer (Perfetti, Yager) → 3-3 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager Morrissey · Pionk · Bauer | Perron · Faksa · Steel · Hryckowian · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| P2 19:51 | EV | Assist | Mercer (Perfetti, Samberg) → 5-3 | Lowry · Barron · Koepke · Mercer · Perfetti · Rosén Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer | Perron · Seguin · Faksa · Kiviranta · Johnston Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Taylor Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 07:54 | EV | Assist | Mercer (Perfetti) → 1-0 | Lowry · Iafallo · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager · Björck DeMelo · Morrissey · Bauer | Rodrigues · Bratt · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Lombardi Dillon · Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Chisholm Allen (G) |
| P1 15:06 | PP | Assist | Connor (Perfetti, Scheifele) → 2-0 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Iafallo · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager Morrissey · Samberg · Pionk | Brown · Rodrigues · Glass Dillon · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Hughes Allen (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 01:53 | PP | Goal | Perfetti (Scheifele, Fleury) → 1-0 | Lowry · Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Iafallo · Perfetti · Björck DeMelo · Fleury · Samberg | Kucherov · Gourde · Guentzel · Cirelli · Hagel Carlson · Hedman · Cernak · D'Astous Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Cole over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele WPG | 101 | 10 | |
| Neal Pionk WPG | 85 | 10 | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | 73 | 10 | |
| Dawson Mercer WPG | 68 | 8 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG | 67 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats