Colton Parayko
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots121 × 0.1+12.1
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1747 × 0.01+17.5
- total59 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16659 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 59 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for STL — missed 2 games (2026-10-31, 2026-11-03).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.0
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.0% (1050 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.3%, worth PD −2.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Blues | 79 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 28 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 19:23 | 3 | 0 | 165 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Blues | 81 | 4 | 31 | 35 | 7 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 21:12 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blues | 82 | 6 | 29 | 35 | -7 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 22:37 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blues | 80 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 22:47 | 3 | 1 | 176 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 64 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 23:00 | 1 | 1 | 162 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 32 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 80 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:34 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 79 | 4 | 23 | 27 | -19 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:00 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 82 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23:52 | 4 | 1 | 154 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 64 | 16 | 20 | 36 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23:45 | 4 | 1 | 125 | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 77 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 17 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 2 | 22 | 25 | — | 32 | — | 0 | — | 20:04 | — | — | 113 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Samuel Girard (2025-25) · Olli Maatta (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 11:46 | EV | Assist | #? (Barron, Parayko) → 2-4 | Neighbours · Kaskimaki Parayko · Barron | Brown · Mantha · Glass Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 15 · @ MIN | |||||
| P2 04:57 | EV | Assist | McTavish (Suter, Parayko) → 2-2 | Suter · Neighbours · McTavish Parayko · Broberg | Pitlick · McCarron · Lorenz Brodin · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Colton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Barron STL | 83 | 10 | |
| Pius Suter STL | 66 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 65 | 10 | |
| Robert Thomas STL | 56 | 10 | |
| Connor McMichael STL | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats