Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals53 × 3+159
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points65 × 0.5+32.5
- game-winning goals19 × 0.5+9.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots369 × 0.1+36.9
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1543 × 0.01+15.4
- total286 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242286 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 286 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 19:18/game over the last 6, up 15% from 16:43 earlier in the season.
- Hot window: 23.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for ANA — missed 1 game (2026-10-13).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +15.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.3% shooting on 79 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (478 shots before this season) — that's 5.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (10.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.1%, worth PD +15.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Sennecke 21.3%, Granlund 18.2%, LaCombe 6.7%, Carlsson 18.2%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 82 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14:09 | 3 | 2 | 190 | 10.5% | 37.5% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 76 | 41 | 28 | 69 | -2 | 28 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 17:15 | 7 | 1 | 285 | 14.4% | 49.0% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 18 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 18:22 | 4 | 0 | 79 | 20.3% | 37.8% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 53 | 31 | 84 | — | 34 | — | 38 | — | 17:06 | — | — | 258 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Cole Caufield (2025-25) · Dylan Guenther (2025-25) · Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Tage Thompson (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs NSH | |||||
| P1 08:08 | EV | Goal | #? (Granlund) → 1-0 | Granlund · Sennecke Mintyukov · Warren | Colton · Drury · Edstrom Skjei · Perbix Annunen (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 08:26 | PP | Assist | #? (Gauthier, LaCombe) → 1-0 | Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Lizotte · Robertson Karlsson · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| P2 06:28 | PP | Goal | #? (Granlund, LaCombe) → 2-0 | Granlund · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Rakell · Kindel Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| P2 09:11 | EV | Goal | #? (Granlund, Sennecke) → 3-0 | Granlund · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| P3 19:26 | EV | Goal | #? (LaCombe, Granlund) → 5-2 | Granlund · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe | Crosby · Rakell · Kindel Letang · Karlsson Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Cutter over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Sennecke ANA | 142 | 10 | |
| Mikael Granlund ANA | 121 | 9 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 114 | 10 | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 77 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 48 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats