Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots117 × 0.1+11.7
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)991 × 0.01+9.9
- total92 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24292 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 92 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 10:27/game over the last 6, down 15% from 12:19 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (95 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.0%, worth PD +1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Blues | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 71 | 12 | 9 | 21 | -6 | 26 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14:20 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 12.9% | 46.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 14.8% | 46.8% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 18 | 13 | 31 | — | 29 | — | 6 | — | 13:09 | — | — | 125 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 14:54 | EV | Goal | Dvorsky (McMichael) → 4-4 | Buchnevich · Thomas · McMichael · Holloway · Snuggerud · Dvorsky Fowler · Parayko · Barron | Mantha · Meier · Rodrigues · Hischier · Boqvist · Evangelista Hamilton · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ DET | |||||
| P1 02:29 | EV | Goal | Dvorsky (Barron, Holloway) → 1-0 | Toropchenko · Suter · Holloway · Kaskimaki · Dvorsky Carlo · Broberg · Barron | Compher · Kolesar · Rasmussen · Dries · Mazur · Danielson Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dalibor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich STL | 58 | 9 | |
| Connor McMichael STL | 51 | 10 | |
| Jake Neighbours STL | 42 | 8 | |
| Justin Barron STL | 36 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 35 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats