Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 52?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM102 × 0.05+5.1
- ice time (min)1476 × 0.01+14.8
- total125 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242125 = 52/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 125 points is 52 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.8% (1088 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.5%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Sabres | 41 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -15 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 6.5% | 47.5% |
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 79 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -19 | 55 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 15:54 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 8.1% | 45.6% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 81 | 31 | 37 | 68 | -3 | 41 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 16:30 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 14.7% | 48.3% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 79 | 18 | 29 | 47 | -4 | 42 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 17:14 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 9.0% | 45.5% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 61 | 11 | 20 | 31 | -13 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17:13 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 7.9% | 50.6% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 21 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -4 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 16:37 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 10.2% | 50.8% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 82 | 28 | 31 | 59 | -7 | 59 | 13 | 29 | 0 | 17:02 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 13.7% | 53.2% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:32 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 9.3% | 53.8% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 18 | 27 | 45 | — | 78 | — | 24 | — | 16:39 | — | — | 161 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Anton Lundell (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 13:13 | EV | Assist | Stützle (Zetterlund, Cozens) → 2-0 | Zetterlund · Batherson · Cozens · Tomasino · Pinto · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo | Kadri · Landeskog · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Roy · Necas Kulak · Toews · Makar · Malinski Wedgewood (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 13:25 | EV | Goal | Cozens (Stützle, Zub) → 1-0 | Giroux · Amadio · Zetterlund · Cozens · Greig · Stützle Kleven · Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo | Goodrow · Marchment · Sherwood · Dellandrea · Ostapchuk · Misa Trouba · Nurse · Kesselring · Dickinson Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P2 10:54 | EV | Assist | Stützle (Sanderson, Cozens) → 3-1 | Amadio · Cozens · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Sanderson | Sherwood · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Nurse · Kesselring · Dickinson Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ LAK | |||||
| P3 12:34 | PP | Goal | Cozens (Stützle, Batherson) → 4-5 | Giroux · Amadio · Batherson · Cozens · Greig · Stützle · Halliday Sanderson · Zub | Laughton · Kempe · Panarin · Moore · Laferriere Doughty · Dumoulin · Edmundson · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
| P3 07:18 | EV | Goal | Cozens (Stützle, Matinpalo) → 2-5 | Zetterlund · Batherson · Cozens · Pinto · Stützle · Halliday Sanderson · Zub · Matinpalo | Perry · Armia · Laughton · Moore · Lee · Byfield Dumoulin · Edmundson · Gustafsson · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle OTT | 90 | 10 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 66 | 10 | |
| Jake Sanderson OTT | 57 | 8 | |
| Jordan Spence OTT | 54 | 10 | |
| Claude Giroux OTT | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats