Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1868 × 0.01+18.7
- total75 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16675 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 75 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 10.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.2% (322 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.6%, worth PD +1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Pionk 8.5%, Connor 18.5%, Scheifele 9.8%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Jets | 15 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 63 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 78 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 60 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:08 | 2 | 1 | 95 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 66 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 8 | 19 | 27 | — | 40 | — | 0 | — | 21:01 | — | — | 95 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kaiden Guhle (2025-25) · Anton Stralman (2021-21) · Timothy Liljegren (2025-25) · Johnathan Kovacevic (2025-25) · Juuso Valimaki (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ DAL | Goal | 01:11 · P2 · EV | Samberg → 1-2 | Vilardi · Scheifele · Connor Morrissey · Samberg | Robertson · Hintz · Hyry Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 12 | @ DAL | Assist | 19:51 · P2 · EV | Mercer (Perfetti, Samberg) → 5-3 | Lowry · Mercer · Perfetti Pionk · Samberg | Perron · Johnston · Seguin Lundkvist · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 29 | @ TBL | Goal | 07:00 · P3 · EV | Samberg (Perfetti, Scheifele) → 2-5 | Vilardi · Scheifele · Perfetti Fleury · Samberg | Holmberg · Hagel · Cirelli Hedman · Cernak Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Oct 29 | @ TBL | Assist | 17:12 · P3 · EV | Connor (Scheifele, Samberg) → 4-5 | Vilardi · Scheifele · Connor · Perfetti Pionk · Samberg | Holmberg · Hagel · Cirelli Hedman · Cernak Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Pionk WPG | 169 | 10 | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | 78 | 10 | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG | 75 | 10 | |
| Adam Lowry WPG | 68 | 10 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG | 62 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats