Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 65?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals26 × 3+78
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals14 × 0.5+7
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots154 × 0.1+15.4
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1441 × 0.01+14.4
- total158 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242158 = 65/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 158 points is 65 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.0
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 21.2% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.0% (1341 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.6 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.5%, worth PD +4.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Mittelstadt 20.0%, McAvoy 4.5%, Hagens 17.6%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Hurricanes | 58 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -14 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14:32 | 2 | 0 | 70 | 12.9% | 46.3% |
| 2014-15 | Hurricanes | 81 | 17 | 22 | 39 | -23 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 16:25 | 4 | 1 | 170 | 10.0% | 52.3% |
| 2015-16 | Hurricanes | 82 | 11 | 28 | 39 | -23 | 24 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 18:07 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 6.3% | 49.1% |
| 2016-17 | Hurricanes | 72 | 11 | 34 | 45 | -2 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 18:11 | 0 | 0 | 151 | 7.3% | 55.6% |
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 81 | 16 | 28 | 44 | -8 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 17:54 | 4 | 1 | 153 | 10.5% | 54.5% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 81 | 27 | 51 | 78 | 30 | 20 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 20:02 | 5 | 0 | 182 | 14.8% | 54.3% |
| 2019-20 | Flames | 70 | 29 | 25 | 54 | -8 | 22 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 19:43 | 7 | 1 | 169 | 17.2% | 49.3% |
| 2020-21 | Flames | 56 | 19 | 28 | 47 | 10 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 19:54 | 4 | 1 | 130 | 14.6% | 51.4% |
| 2021-22 | Flames | 82 | 42 | 40 | 82 | 61 | 22 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 19:57 | 9 | 2 | 235 | 17.9% | 52.9% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 80 | 22 | 42 | 64 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 18:39 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 11.8% | 55.7% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 49 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -8 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 20:45 | 3 | 0 | 131 | 6.9% | 55.5% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 26 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 17:42 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 14.3% | 58.7% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 82 | 17 | 30 | 47 | -4 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 18:05 | 3 | 0 | 152 | 11.2% | 55.2% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 69 | 17 | 31 | 48 | -7 | 38 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 17:53 | 3 | 0 | 114 | 14.9% | 56.1% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17:07 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 20.0% | 61.5% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 26 | 31 | 57 | — | 34 | — | 19 | — | 16:22 | — | — | 149 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jared McCann (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Jamie Benn (2025-25) · Tomas Hertl (2025-25) · Rickard Rakell (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs MTL | |||||
| P2 14:53 | EV | Assist | #? (Lindholm, Zadorov) → 1-5 | Lindholm · Khusnutdinov Zadorov · Borgen | Anderson · Evans · Newhook Carrier · Xhekaj Fowler (G) |
| P3 00:53 | EV | Assist | Mittelstadt (Lindholm, Borgen) → 2-5 | Lindholm · Mittelstadt · Khusnutdinov Zadorov · Borgen | Suzuki · Caufield · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson Fowler (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 04:50 | EV | Goal | #? (Mittelstadt, McAvoy) → 1-0 | Mittelstadt · Khusnutdinov McAvoy · Lohrei | Bennett · Tkachuk · Reinhardt Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 18:57 | EV | Goal | #? → 3-1 | Mittelstadt · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy | Rakell · Novak · Kindel Karlsson · Korczak Silovs (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs VGK | |||||
| P1 07:23 | EV | Assist | #? (Lindholm, Zadorov) → 1-0 | Lindholm · Mittelstadt Zadorov · Borgen | Stone · Barbashev · Eichel Hanifin · Coghlan Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Elias over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt BOS | 106 | 10 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 84 | 10 | |
| James Hagens BOS | 79 | 8 | |
| William Borgen BOS | 67 | 10 | |
| Nikita Zadorov BOS | 59 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats