Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots119 × 0.1+11.9
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1283 × 0.01+12.8
- total87 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24287 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 87 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 8.2% (1333 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.1%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 30 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 7.8% | 41.6% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 48 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -10 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13:56 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 7.7% | 42.4% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 74 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -7 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15:49 | 1 | 0 | 168 | 5.4% | 46.4% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 38 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:19 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 7.8% | 45.5% |
| 2019-20 | Penguins | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 52.3% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 35 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:06 | 1 | 0 | 65 | 10.8% | 42.2% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 82 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 15:50 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 7.8% | 47.4% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 69 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 17:51 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 8.7% | 49.4% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 80 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 26 | 34 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 15:10 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 6.5% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 82 | 15 | 17 | 32 | -4 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15:13 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 9.3% | 45.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 69 | 11 | 20 | 31 | -16 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 17:00 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 6.9% | 47.0% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 13.8% | 47.1% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 14 | 19 | 33 | — | 33 | — | 3 | — | 15:14 | — | — | 130 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WSH | |||||
| P1 02:20 | PP | Goal | Rodrigues (Meier, Gritsyuk) → 1-0 | Meier · Rodrigues · Bratt · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Hughes | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou · Protas · Leonard Liljegren · Fehervary · Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| P3 06:27 | EV | Assist | Kolyachonok (Rodrigues) → 3-2 | Noesen · Brown · Rodrigues Dillon · Kolyachonok | Ovechkin · Strome · Beauvillier · Kyrou · Dubois · Leonard Chychrun · Liljegren · Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 15:23 | EV | Goal | Rodrigues (Mantha) → 1-1 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Bratt · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk Kovacevic · Chisholm | Schenn · Palat · Pageau · Duclair · Holmstrom · Eklund Hutton · Stanley · Kessel · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 18:19 | EV | Assist | Mantha (Rodrigues, Pesce) → 4-1 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Bratt · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk Pesce · Kovacevic · Chisholm · Hughes | Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter · McMichael · McTavish · Kaskimaki Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Jiricek Binnington (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs LAK | |||||
| P2 18:43 | EV | Assist | Mantha (Boqvist, Rodrigues) → 1-1 | Rodrigues · Mantha · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler | Kempe · Panarin · Helenius Edmundson · Clarke Forsberg (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Evan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha NJD | 71 | 7 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 55 | 10 | |
| Jesper Boqvist NJD | 54 | 10 | |
| Declan Chisholm NJD | 49 | 10 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats