Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 79?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists52 × 1+52
- PP points31 × 0.5+15.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots212 × 0.1+21.2
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1708 × 0.01+17.1
- total191 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242191 = 79/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 191 points is 79 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.6% shooting on 48 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.4% (1801 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.9%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Predators | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Predators | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11:24 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Predators | 82 | 26 | 37 | 63 | 15 | 24 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 17:20 | 6 | 2 | 237 | 11.0% | 42.9% |
| 2015-16 | Predators | 82 | 33 | 31 | 64 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 19:03 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 13.4% | 22.2% |
| 2016-17 | Predators | 82 | 31 | 27 | 58 | -4 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 18:31 | 9 | 1 | 234 | 13.3% | 27.8% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 67 | 26 | 38 | 64 | 27 | 38 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 17:28 | 6 | 2 | 179 | 14.5% | 44.4% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 64 | 28 | 22 | 50 | 8 | 26 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 18:37 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 12.9% | 14.3% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 63 | 21 | 27 | 48 | -7 | 29 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 17:21 | 2 | 0 | 198 | 10.6% | 33.3% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 39 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -9 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 18:17 | 3 | 1 | 129 | 9.3% | 37.5% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 69 | 42 | 42 | 84 | 12 | 22 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 18:06 | 8 | 1 | 226 | 18.6% | 100.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 50 | 19 | 23 | 42 | -4 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 17:28 | 2 | 0 | 157 | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 82 | 48 | 46 | 94 | 16 | 43 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 18:54 | 11 | 3 | 347 | 13.8% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 82 | 31 | 45 | 76 | -27 | 44 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 18:38 | 3 | 0 | 281 | 11.0% | 23.5% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 82 | 40 | 35 | 75 | -2 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 18:53 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 16.3% | 31.3% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 20:20 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 14.6% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 27 | 52 | 79 | — | 39 | — | 27 | — | 18:20 | — | — | 182 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Nikolaj Ehlers (2025-25) · Martin Necas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 05:20 | EV | Goal | #? (Hoglander) → 1-0 | Hoglander · Wright Struble · Hunt | Zuccarello · Laughton · Lee Dumoulin · Ceci Forsberg (G) |
| P2 10:32 | EV | Goal | #? (Hoglander, Skjei) → 2-0 | Hoglander · Wright Skjei · Perbix | Kempe · Panarin · Laferriere Dumoulin · Ceci Forsberg (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs STL | |||||
| P3 18:31 | EV | Assist | #? (Stamkos, Forsberg) → 3-1 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg Wilsby | Buchnevich · Thomas · Holloway Fowler · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs CAR | |||||
| P1 12:32 | EV | Assist | #? (Forsberg) → 1-0 | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Skjei | Jankowski · Martinook · Jarvis Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
| P2 03:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Forsberg) → 2-0 | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Struble | Ehlers · Kotkaniemi · Blake Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Filip over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi NSH | 89 | 10 | |
| Nils Hoglander NSH | 83 | 10 | |
| Steven Stamkos NSH | 69 | 10 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly NSH | 68 | 10 | |
| Jayden Struble NSH | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats