Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 52?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists39 × 1+39
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots109 × 0.1+10.9
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1315 × 0.01+13.2
- total127 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242127 = 52/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 127 points is 52 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 14:12/game over the last 6, down 16% from 16:48 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.4% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 17.2% (937 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.7%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Blues | 30 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 25.0% | 40.1% |
| 2017-18 | Blues | 53 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 15.6% | 38.4% |
| 2018-19 | Blues | 80 | 14 | 12 | 26 | -4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:31 | 1 | 0 | 60 | 23.3% | 45.6% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 69 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:27 | 2 | 0 | 75 | 14.7% | 45.4% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 38 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:21 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 11.6% | 43.4% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 81 | 26 | 34 | 60 | 4 | 40 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 16:26 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 23.4% | 39.9% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 59 | 10 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:24 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 11.0% | 38.1% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 23 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:40 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 17.1% | 40.0% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 82 | 19 | 26 | 45 | 15 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:07 | 3 | 0 | 122 | 15.6% | 42.5% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 70 | 23 | 28 | 51 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16:48 | 3 | 1 | 111 | 20.7% | 36.4% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 82 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 16:15 | 3 | 0 | 133 | 17.3% | 24.1% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:39 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 18 | 39 | 58 | — | 37 | — | 9 | — | 15:29 | — | — | 125 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Patrick Kane (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Jamie Benn (2025-25) · Dylan Strome (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 04:51 | EV | Goal | Barbashev (Olofsson, Theodore) → 3-1 | Stone · Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Eichel · Connelly McNabb · Theodore · Andersson · Lauzon | Lee · Crouse · Yamamoto · Hayton · McBain · But Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| P2 08:16 | EV | Goal | Barbashev (Olofsson, Hertl) → 4-1 | Stone · Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Eichel · Connelly Wotherspoon · Coghlan | Lee · Crouse · Carcone · Yamamoto · Hayton Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ BUF | |||||
| P2 13:43 | EV | Assist | Eichel (Barbashev) → 2-0 | Stone · Barbashev · Eichel · Connelly McNabb · Theodore | Zucker · Quinn · Kozak · Ostlund Timmins · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power Ellis (G) |
| P3 10:00 | EV | Assist | Hertl (Barbashev, Theodore) → 4-1 | Dowd · Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore · Andersson · Lauzon | Carrick · Malenstyn · Thompson · Krebs · Kozak · Benson Timmins · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 17:57 | EV | Goal | Barbashev (Marner, McNabb) → 2-1 | Karlsson · Barbashev · Eichel · Marner · Connelly McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin · Lauzon | Meier · Bratt · Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Kovacevic · Chisholm Hellebuyck (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ivan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore VGK | 69 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 69 | 10 | |
| Mark Stone VGK | 65 | 10 | |
| Brayden McNabb VGK | 58 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats