J.T. Compher
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists26 × 1+26
- PP points7 × 0.5+3.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots112 × 0.1+11.2
- PIM14 × 0.05+0.7
- ice time (min)1289 × 0.01+12.9
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (12 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 11 of 16 for DET — missed 5 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-10-17, 2026-10-20, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (1077 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Avalanche | 21 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:56 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 10.0% | 47.6% |
| 2017-18 | Avalanche | 69 | 13 | 10 | 23 | -29 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 16:00 | 3 | 2 | 131 | 9.9% | 45.1% |
| 2018-19 | Avalanche | 66 | 16 | 16 | 32 | -8 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 17:29 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 13.6% | 49.2% |
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 67 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:45 | 3 | 1 | 106 | 10.4% | 47.7% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 48 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:13 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 21.3% | 45.9% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 70 | 18 | 15 | 33 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 16:19 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 17.6% | 51.4% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 82 | 17 | 35 | 52 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 20:32 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 11.0% | 48.8% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 77 | 19 | 29 | 48 | -5 | 34 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 19:23 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 17.6% | 44.8% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 76 | 11 | 21 | 32 | -7 | 24 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 16:41 | 3 | 0 | 98 | 11.2% | 45.1% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 82 | 11 | 17 | 28 | -13 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:40 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 11.6% | 50.9% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 16.7% | 42.4% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 16 | 26 | 42 | — | 29 | — | 3 | — | 15:16 | — | — | 130 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ FLA | |||||
| P1 04:07 | EV | Goal | Compher (Mazur, Seider) → 1-1 | Compher · Arvidsson · Mazur Seider · Wallinder | Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Kulikov · Gudas Schmid (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TBL | |||||
| P2 10:23 | EV | Assist | Raymond (Compher) → 1-3 | Compher · Rasmussen · Raymond Chiarot · Faulk · Seider · Wallinder | Cirelli · Hagel · Holmberg · Mikheyev · Goncalves · James Carlson · D'Astous · Crozier · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| P3 05:29 | PP | Goal | Compher (Copp, Faulk) → 2-3 | Copp · Compher · Kolesar · Rasmussen · Dries · Leonard · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk · Seider | Cirelli · Viel · Mikheyev · Goncalves · Geekie Hedman · D'Astous · Crozier · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs STL | |||||
| P1 08:13 | EV | Goal | Compher (Rasmussen) → 1-1 | Compher · Kolesar · Rasmussen · Dries · Mazur · Danielson Englund · Seider · Johansson | Toropchenko · Suter · McMichael · Holloway · Kaskimaki · Dvorsky Carlo · Broberg · Barron · Lindstein Hofer (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 15:26 | EV | Assist | Arvidsson (DeBrincat, Compher) → 3-1 | Arvidsson · Compher · DeBrincat Englund · Johansson | Kantserov · Kane · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with J.T. over the last 9 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Rasmussen DET | 84 | 8 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 63 | 9 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 52 | 9 | |
| Justin Faulk DET | 44 | 9 | |
| William Wallinder DET | 34 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats