Jackson Blake
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 69?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists50 × 1+50
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots210 × 0.1+21
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1504 × 0.01+15
- total166 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242166 = 69/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 166 points is 69 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.3 SOG/game lately vs 3.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 50 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.7% (318 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD −2.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 80 | 17 | 17 | 34 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 13:51 | 6 | 0 | 142 | 12.0% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 81 | 22 | 31 | 53 | 4 | 40 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 16:30 | 3 | 1 | 174 | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17:54 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 21 | 50 | 71 | — | 48 | — | 18 | — | 16:53 | — | — | 180 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Will Smith (2025-25) · Matvei Michkov (2025-25) · Connor Bedard (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Jimmy Snuggerud (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ SEA | Assist | 12:50 · P1 · PP | #? (Blake, Ehlers) → 2-0 | Ehlers · Svechnikov · Blake Gostisbehere | Stephenson · Winterton Larsson · Mahura Grubauer (G) |
| Nov 7 | vs CHI | Goal | 03:21 · P1 · EV | Blake (Ehlers) → 2-0 | Stankoven · Ehlers · Blake Chatfield · Slavin | Moore · Greenway · Smith Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| Nov 5 | @ NYI | Assist | 00:57 · P1 · EV | Stankoven (Blake, Miller) → 1-0 | Stankoven · Ehlers · Blake Miller · Walker | Duclair · Pageau · Palat Pelech · DeAngelo Varlamov (G) |
| Nov 3 | @ NSH | Goal | 10:28 · P2 · EV | Blake (Gostisbehere, Stankoven) → 1-2 | Stankoven · Ehlers · Blake Gostisbehere · Välimäki | Bourque · Schaefer · O'Reilly Wilsby · Josi Saros (G) |
| Nov 1 | vs WPG | Assist | 09:09 · P2 · EV | Stankoven (Blake, Ehlers) → 5-0 | Stankoven · Ehlers · Blake Chatfield · Slavin | Iafallo · Lowry · Perfetti DeMelo · Pionk Skinner (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jackson over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven CAR | 126 | 10 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers CAR | 117 | 10 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere CAR | 82 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 59 | 10 | |
| Sean Walker CAR | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats