Jackson LaCombe
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 87?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists71 × 1+71
- PP points53 × 0.5+26.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots66 × 0.1+6.6
- PIM62 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)2308 × 0.01+23.1
- total145 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166145 = 87/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 145 points is 87 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for ANA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.7% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.2% (347 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.1%, worth PD −0.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Ducks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 71 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -24 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:23 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 75 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 22:18 | 2 | 0 | 134 | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 82 | 10 | 48 | 58 | -2 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 24:15 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 19 | 1 | 21 | 22 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 27:29 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 5 | 71 | 76 | — | 57 | — | 32 | — | 24:14 | — | — | 84 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Victor Hedman (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Darren Raddysh (2025-25) · Erik Karlsson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 08:26 | PP | Assist | Granlund (Gauthier, LaCombe) → 1-0 | Granlund · Vatrano · Gauthier · Carlsson · Myatovic · Sennecke · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Mintyukov | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Lizotte · Robertson Letang · Karlsson · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| P2 06:28 | PP | Assist | Gauthier (Granlund, LaCombe) → 2-0 | Granlund · Nesterenko · Malott · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke · McQueen LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Lapierre · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Girard · Stastney Silovs (G) |
| P3 19:26 | EV | Assist | Gauthier (LaCombe, Granlund) → 5-2 | Granlund · Nesterenko · Malott · Gauthier · Sennecke · McQueen Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mitchell | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Brazeau · Lapierre · Kuzmenko · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Stastney · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Nov 6 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 12:02 | EV | Assist | Luneau (LaCombe, Carlsson) → 2-3 | Granlund · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov | Backlund · Farabee · Sharangovich · Coronato · Klapka · Suniev Hanley · Middleton · Whitecloud · Nemec Wolf (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ EDM | |||||
| P1 09:26 | PP | Assist | Gauthier (LaCombe, Carlsson) → 1-0 | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke · McQueen LaCombe · Luneau | Nugent-Hopkins · Dickinson · Kapanen · Podkolzin · Michaels Ekholm · Murphy · Shea · Mukhamadullin Tomkins (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jackson over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 130 | 10 | |
| Beckett Sennecke ANA | 122 | 10 | |
| Drew Helleson ANA | 118 | 8 | |
| Cutter Gauthier ANA | 114 | 10 | |
| Mikael Granlund ANA | 106 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats