Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals4 × 3+12
- proj assists9 × 1+9
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM115 × 0.05+5.8
- ice time (min)1548 × 0.01+15.5
- total51 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16651 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 51 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.1% (406 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.8%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Sharks | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Sharks | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Sharks | 45 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:03 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Wild | 21 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 79 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 80 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -15 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 67 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 11 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 75 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:26 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 4 | 9 | 14 | — | 92 | — | 0 | — | 18:41 | — | — | 94 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Jeremy Lauzon (2025-25) · Travis Dermott (2023-23) · Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Haydn Fleury (2025-25).
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 137 | 10 | |
| Mikael Backlund CGY | 78 | 10 | |
| Joel Farabee CGY | 62 | 10 | |
| Matt Coronato CGY | 57 | 10 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich CGY | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats