Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 49?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots122 × 0.1+12.2
- PIM31 × 0.05+1.6
- ice time (min)1704 × 0.01+17
- total81 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16681 = 49/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 81 points is 49 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 8 of 17 for MIN — missed 9 games (2026-11-01, 2026-11-03, 2026-11-06, 2026-11-07, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.3% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 8.0% (977 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.6%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | Wild | 53 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:04 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Wild | 70 | 3 | 20 | 23 | -4 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 21:36 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Wild | 39 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 21:33 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Wild | 67 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 15 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22:38 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Wild | 66 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 22:37 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Wild | 77 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 22:41 | 2 | 0 | 122 | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Wild | 76 | 10 | 28 | 38 | 33 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24:02 | 2 | 1 | 144 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Wild | 61 | 9 | 28 | 37 | -6 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 24:33 | 2 | 1 | 110 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Wild | 82 | 14 | 29 | 43 | -1 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 24:09 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 9.2% | 100.0% |
| 2019-20 | Wild | 62 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -1 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 22:34 | 2 | 0 | 112 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Wild | 54 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -2 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22:05 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Wild | 65 | 10 | 30 | 40 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 21:09 | 2 | 2 | 116 | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 79 | 11 | 23 | 34 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 21:49 | 3 | 0 | 149 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 16 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23:20 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 66 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 20:27 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 79 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 19:36 | 2 | 1 | 90 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 12 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:14 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 7 | 25 | 32 | — | 40 | — | 6 | — | 19:39 | — | — | 111 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ryan McDonagh (2025-25) · Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Sean Durzi (2025-25) · Aaron Ekblad (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25).
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jared over the last 8 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes MIN | 101 | 8 | |
| Matt Boldy MIN | 65 | 8 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN | 61 | 8 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN | 58 | 8 | |
| Blake Coleman MIN | 53 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats