Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 56?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots178 × 0.1+17.8
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1399 × 0.01+14
- total136 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242136 = 56/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 136 points is 56 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.3 SOG/game lately vs 3.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.9% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.6% (1350 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | Oilers | 69 | 18 | 25 | 43 | -12 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 17:41 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 11.4% | 42.3% |
| 2011-12 | Oilers | 78 | 34 | 42 | 76 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 17:36 | 4 | 0 | 180 | 18.9% | 44.4% |
| 2012-13 | Oilers | 48 | 16 | 21 | 37 | -4 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 19:00 | 3 | 0 | 133 | 12.0% | 42.1% |
| 2013-14 | Oilers | 80 | 28 | 37 | 65 | -11 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 19:33 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 14.0% | 38.1% |
| 2014-15 | Oilers | 81 | 24 | 39 | 63 | -16 | 24 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 19:03 | 2 | 0 | 183 | 13.1% | 16.7% |
| 2015-16 | Oilers | 69 | 25 | 22 | 47 | -12 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 17:51 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 14.4% | 62.5% |
| 2016-17 | Oilers | 82 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 16:46 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 9.6% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Islanders | 81 | 25 | 34 | 59 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 16:04 | 7 | 1 | 183 | 13.7% | 36.4% |
| 2018-19 | Islanders | 78 | 19 | 18 | 37 | -6 | 17 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 16:32 | 5 | 0 | 160 | 11.9% | 45.0% |
| 2019-20 | Islanders | 58 | 16 | 24 | 40 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17:49 | 1 | 0 | 136 | 11.8% | 33.3% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 55 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:45 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 12.5% | 42.9% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 79 | 21 | 23 | 44 | -28 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 17:57 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 12.8% | 30.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 82 | 20 | 43 | 63 | 6 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 16:41 | 4 | 1 | 177 | 11.3% | 44.2% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 78 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 17:27 | 3 | 1 | 168 | 10.1% | 42.5% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 42 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:16 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 13.6% | 38.9% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 80 | 26 | 29 | 55 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 18:29 | 3 | 0 | 168 | 15.5% | 37.5% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 17 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -6 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16:39 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 20 | 25 | 45 | — | 41 | — | 22 | — | 16:03 | — | — | 160 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Joel Eriksson Ek (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 06:38 | PP | Goal | Eberle (Beniers, Stephenson) → 2-4 | Eberle · Stephenson · McMann · Beniers · Samoskevich · Nyman Montour · Dunn · Evans | Zibanejad · Miller · Kartye · Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox · Schneider Korpisalo (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs TOR | |||||
| P3 19:27 | EV | Assist | Montour (Eberle, Beniers) → 5-4 | Eberle · Beniers · McMann Dunn · Montour | Sissons · Paul · Roslovic McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 03:38 | EV | Goal | Eberle (Evans) → 1-0 | Eberle · Beniers · McCann Evans · Montour | Schmaltz · Keller · Crouse Peeke · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| P2 02:23 | PP | Assist | Montour (Eberle, Dunn) → 3-1 | Eberle · Stephenson · McCann Dunn · Montour | Stenlund Peeke · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 15 · @ TBL | |||||
| P3 02:54 | PP | Assist | McCann (Eberle, Stephenson) → 2-2 | Eberle · Stephenson · Gaudreau · McCann · McMann · Winterton · Meyers Larsson · Dunn | Girgensons · Cirelli · Hagel · Viel · Geekie McDonagh · Hedman · Cernak · Crozier Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jordan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McMann SEA | 132 | 10 | |
| Chandler Stephenson SEA | 87 | 10 | |
| Vince Dunn SEA | 83 | 10 | |
| Matty Beniers SEA | 79 | 10 | |
| Ryker Evans SEA | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats