Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots134 × 0.1+13.4
- PIM25 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)1226 × 0.01+12.3
- total95 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24295 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.1 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.6% (972 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.6%, worth PD +1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Coyotes | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2015-16 | Coyotes | 81 | 9 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15:11 | 2 | 0 | 109 | 8.3% | 54.5% |
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 77 | 11 | 14 | 25 | -8 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15:41 | 2 | 0 | 109 | 10.1% | 44.4% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 81 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 1 | 0 | 112 | 5.4% | 36.4% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 82 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:29 | 5 | 0 | 146 | 10.3% | 44.0% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 45 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 4.5% | 51.6% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 44 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 1 | 0 | 62 | 6.5% | 47.0% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 59 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 2 | 0 | 77 | 7.8% | 45.1% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 82 | 13 | 21 | 34 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:38 | 3 | 0 | 162 | 8.0% | 45.1% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 82 | 14 | 18 | 32 | -1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:39 | 1 | 0 | 148 | 9.5% | 50.5% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 79 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 3 | 0 | 112 | 13.4% | 48.6% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 77 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:50 | 3 | 0 | 109 | 11.0% | 43.8% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 12.5% | 47.9% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 15 | 21 | 36 | — | 32 | — | 0 | — | 14:49 | — | — | 137 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Trevor Moore (2025-25) · Christian Dvorak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 19:27 | EV | Goal | Martinook (Kotkaniemi, Robinson) → 4-0 | Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi Walker · Miller | Nazar · Moore · Frondell Vlasic · Rinzel Knight (G) |
| P1 10:54 | EV | Goal | #? (Kotkaniemi, Robinson) → 3-0 | Robinson · Kotkaniemi Gostisbehere · Nikishin | Greenway · Smith · Boucher Cole · Korchinski Knight (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 03:20 | EV | Assist | Kotkaniemi (Martinook, #?) → 2-0 | Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi Walker · Miller | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 15:51 | EV | Goal | Martinook (Jarvis, Slavin) → 1-0 | Jankowski · Martinook · Jarvis Slavin · Chatfield | Coyle · Olivier · Knies Gudbranson · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ STL | |||||
| P2 05:05 | EV | Assist | Kotkaniemi (Martinook, Jarvis) → 2-0 | Jarvis · Martinook · Kotkaniemi Chatfield · Slavin | Dvorsky · Neighbours · Buchnevich Jiricek · Barron Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jordan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski CAR | 70 | 8 | |
| Jaccob Slavin CAR | 59 | 10 | |
| Jalen Chatfield CAR | 58 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 57 | 10 | |
| Sean Walker CAR | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats