Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals53 × 3+159
- proj assists50 × 1+50
- PP points46 × 0.5+23
- game-winning goals17 × 0.5+8.5
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots260 × 0.1+26
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1805 × 0.01+18.1
- total286 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242286 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 286 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for MIN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +14.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 27.4% shooting on 62 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 16.2% (1398 shots before this season) — that's 7.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (10.0 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 21.9%, worth PD +14.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Boldy 8.4%, Hughes 11.5%, Ek 9.4%, Brodin 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Wild | 55 | 27 | 24 | 51 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 18:18 | 3 | 2 | 157 | 17.2% | 12.5% |
| 2021-22 | Wild | 81 | 47 | 61 | 108 | 27 | 34 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 19:06 | 5 | 2 | 289 | 16.3% | 55.6% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 67 | 40 | 35 | 75 | 4 | 45 | 17 | 32 | 0 | 21:07 | 6 | 2 | 261 | 15.3% | 40.0% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 75 | 46 | 50 | 96 | 11 | 36 | 19 | 41 | 0 | 21:35 | 8 | 2 | 277 | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 41 | 25 | 31 | 56 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 22:28 | 5 | 2 | 145 | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 78 | 45 | 44 | 89 | 10 | 28 | 19 | 32 | 0 | 22:09 | 7 | 4 | 269 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 21 | 17 | 18 | 35 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 21:35 | 4 | 1 | 67 | 25.4% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 53 | 50 | 103 | — | 22 | — | 38 | — | 19:07 | — | — | 210 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Leon Draisaitl (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 17:53 | EV | Assist | #? (Kaprizov) → 1-0 | Ek · Kaprizov Hughes · Kiersted | Blueger · Duhaime · MacEwen McCabe · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| P2 09:55 | PP | Assist | #? (Hughes, Kaprizov) → 2-2 | Hartman · Kaprizov · Shabanov Hughes | Paul · Tverberg McCabe · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| P3 19:03 | EV | Assist | #? (Foligno, Kaprizov) → 5-2 | Foligno · Kaprizov Bogosian · Maatta | Tavares · Nylander · Roslovic · Matthews Raddysh Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ MTL | |||||
| P4 00:21 | PP | Goal | Kaprizov (Boldy, Hughes) → 2-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Evans Carrier · Guhle Fowler (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 02:58 | PP | Assist | #? (Ek, Kaprizov) → 2-0 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Cirelli · Hagel Hedman · Moser Hildeby (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kirill over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy MIN | 192 | 10 | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | 171 | 10 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN | 167 | 10 | |
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 111 | 10 | |
| Maxim Shabanov MIN | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats