Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals3 × 3+9
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots143 × 0.1+14.3
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1448 × 0.01+14.5
- total64 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16664 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 64 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (10 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 9 of 15 for TBL — missed 6 games (2026-10-24, 2026-10-29, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-11, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.5% (113 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.5%, worth PD −1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 35 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 11 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 3 | 24 | 27 | — | 50 | — | 0 | — | 18:15 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 7 of 9 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 · @ COL | |||||
| P3 15:13 | EV | Assist | D'Astous (Goncalves, Crozier) → 3-5 | Point · Guentzel · Goncalves Crozier · D'Astous | Svechkov · Schwartz · Kadri Manson · Burns Blackwood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Max over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman TBL | 68 | 10 | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 61 | 10 | |
| Anthony Cirelli TBL | 54 | 9 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous TBL | 52 | 9 | |
| Conor Geekie TBL | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats