Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 33?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots176 × 0.1+17.6
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1012 × 0.01+10.1
- total81 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24281 = 33/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 81 points is 33 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (10 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 5 of 14 for UTA — missed 9 games (2026-10-22, 2026-10-24, 2026-10-27, 2026-10-29, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.8% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (384 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.0%, worth PD −3.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 21 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Coyotes | 74 | 21 | 8 | 29 | -2 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11:16 | 4 | 0 | 111 | 18.9% | 30.8% |
| 2024-25 | Utah Hockey Club | 53 | 7 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11:26 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 9.3% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 79 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12:44 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 10.9% | 45.2% |
| 2026-27 | Mammoth | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 3.7% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Mammoth | 84 | 12 | 16 | 28 | — | 31 | — | 3 | — | 13:45 | — | — | 150 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Michael over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stenlund UTA | 65 | 10 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | 48 | 10 | |
| Daniil But UTA | 38 | 6 | |
| Dmitri Simashev UTA | 37 | 10 | |
| Andrew Peeke UTA | 34 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats