Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points27 × 0.5+13.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1283 × 0.01+12.8
- total121 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242121 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 121 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.9% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (461 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.6%, worth PD +0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6.5% | 47.3% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 55 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -11 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:55 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 5.9% | 48.4% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 81 | 19 | 27 | 46 | -12 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:21 | 3 | 0 | 155 | 12.3% | 45.8% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 71 | 13 | 28 | 41 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 15:50 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 9.6% | 49.5% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 49 | 11 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 15:11 | 2 | 0 | 86 | 12.8% | 51.8% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 32 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 16:37 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 5.2% | 50.5% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 82 | 22 | 21 | 43 | -16 | 28 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 15:30 | 3 | 1 | 140 | 15.7% | 56.8% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15:16 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 12.9% | 49.3% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 17 | 29 | 45 | — | 33 | — | 20 | — | 15:14 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Taylor Hall (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 16:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Frost, Nemec) → 2-1 | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Nemec | Colangelo · Myatovic · Washe Luneau · Mitchell Dostal (G) |
| P1 19:02 | PP | Assist | #? (Parekh, Frost) → 3-1 | Frost · Coronato · Gridin Parekh | Killorn · Washe Helleson · Mintyukov Dostal (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 12:45 | EV | Assist | #? (Whitecloud, Frost) → 1-0 | Frost · Suniev Middleton · Whitecloud | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Wood Larsson · Dunn Daccord (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P1 02:32 | PP | Goal | #? (Farabee, Coronato) → 1-0 | Farabee · Coronato · Gridin Parekh | Eberle · Beniers Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| P2 05:45 | EV | Assist | #? (Frost) → 2-1 | Frost · Sharangovich Bahl · Parekh | Kakko · Wright · Catton Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Morgan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aydar Suniev CGY | 102 | 10 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich CGY | 79 | 10 | |
| Zayne Parekh CGY | 76 | 10 | |
| Matt Coronato CGY | 56 | 10 | |
| Yan Kuznetsov CGY | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats