Nick Seeler
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots64 × 0.1+6.4
- PIM56 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)1566 × 0.01+15.7
- total50 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16650 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 50 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 17:00/game over the last 6, down 15% from 20:02 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 3.8% (498 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.0%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Wild | 22 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Wild | 71 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Wild | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blackhawks | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 43 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 77 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 71 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 77 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1 | 0 | 82 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 80 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 2 | 19 | 21 | — | 54 | — | 0 | — | 18:48 | — | — | 80 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brendan Smith (2024-24) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Radko Gudas (2025-25) · Johnathan Kovacevic (2025-25) · Timothy Liljegren (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · @ VAN | |||||
| P1 02:03 | EV | Assist | Bunting (Dvorak, #?) → 1-0 | Couturier · Dvorak · Bunting · Acciari · Barkey Sanheim · Drysdale | Gallagher · Karlsson · O'Connor · Rossi · Ohgren · Sasson Schenn · Hronek · Pettersson · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 02:16 | EV | Assist | Acciari (Seeler, Couturier) → 2-1 | Couturier · Acciari · Tippett · Zegras · Knuble · Barkey Seeler · Benoit | Frost · Sharangovich · Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna · Suniev Middleton · Whitecloud · Kuznetsov · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ WSH | |||||
| P2 04:36 | EV | Assist | Couturier (Seeler) → 1-1 | Couturier · Bump · Foerster York · Seeler | Leonard · Strome · Kyrou Liljegren · Fehérváry Thompson (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs ANA | |||||
| P2 15:04 | SH | Assist | Foerster (Seeler) → 3-2 | Cates · Foerster Sanheim · Drysdale · Seeler · Ristolainen | Sennecke · Gauthier · Granlund · Carlsson LaCombe Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 70 | 10 | |
| Sean Couturier PHI | 57 | 10 | |
| Noah Cates PHI | 55 | 10 | |
| Simon Benoit PHI | 52 | 7 | |
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats