Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 68?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists46 × 1+46
- PP points29 × 0.5+14.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots193 × 0.1+19.3
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1367 × 0.01+13.7
- total165 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242165 = 68/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 165 points is 68 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.9% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (1630 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.7%, worth PD −1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Jets | 72 | 15 | 23 | 38 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 16:06 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 82 | 25 | 39 | 64 | 1 | 38 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 17:29 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 82 | 29 | 31 | 60 | 14 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 16:05 | 7 | 0 | 231 | 12.6% | 55.6% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 62 | 21 | 16 | 37 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 15:46 | 4 | 0 | 158 | 13.3% | 50.0% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 71 | 25 | 33 | 58 | 14 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16:31 | 5 | 0 | 203 | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 47 | 21 | 25 | 46 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 16:55 | 5 | 2 | 148 | 14.2% | 100.0% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 62 | 28 | 27 | 55 | 18 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 18:04 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 11.4% | 66.7% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 45 | 12 | 26 | 38 | -2 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15:39 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 9.1% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 82 | 25 | 36 | 61 | 27 | 29 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 15:52 | 7 | 1 | 233 | 10.7% | 26.7% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 69 | 24 | 39 | 63 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 15:48 | 5 | 2 | 174 | 13.8% | 26.3% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 82 | 26 | 45 | 71 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 16:36 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 12.6% | 35.5% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16:16 | 1 | 0 | 46 | 10.9% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 23 | 46 | 69 | — | 17 | — | 29 | — | 15:52 | — | — | 169 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25) · Nikolaj Ehlers (2025-25) · Mitch Marner (2025-25) · Sebastian Aho (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 11:44 | EV | Goal | #? (Miller, Stankoven) → 1-0 | Stankoven · Blake Walker · Miller | Kakko · Wood · Catton Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| P1 12:50 | PP | Assist | #? (Blake, Ehlers) → 2-0 | Ehlers · Svechnikov · Blake Gostisbehere | Stephenson · Winterton Larsson · Mahura Grubauer (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 03:21 | EV | Assist | #? (Ehlers) → 2-0 | Ehlers · Stankoven Slavin · Chatfield | Greenway · Smith · Moore Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 02:19 | PP | Assist | #? (Svechnikov, Ehlers) → 3-0 | Ehlers · Svechnikov · Blake Gostisbehere | Barron · Mercer DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| P2 09:09 | EV | Assist | #? (Blake, Ehlers) → 5-0 | Ehlers · Blake Slavin · Chatfield | Lowry · Iafallo · Perfetti DeMelo · Pionk Skinner (G) · Stevenson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nikolaj over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake CAR | 117 | 10 | |
| Logan Stankoven CAR | 86 | 10 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere CAR | 75 | 10 | |
| Sean Walker CAR | 51 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats