Noah Hanifin
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots119 × 0.1+11.9
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1713 × 0.01+17.1
- total73 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16673 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 73 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.0 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for VGK — missed 1 game (2026-11-11).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.4% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.3% (1311 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.9%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Hurricanes | 79 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -14 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 17:54 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Hurricanes | 81 | 4 | 25 | 29 | -19 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | 108 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 79 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -20 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 18:52 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 80 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 20:46 | 2 | 0 | 116 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Flames | 70 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -12 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 21:10 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flames | 47 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:01 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flames | 81 | 10 | 38 | 48 | 27 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 21:18 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 81 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22:39 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 61 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 13 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 23:46 | 1 | 0 | 123 | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 19 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23:07 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 80 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 21:33 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 71 | 3 | 25 | 28 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 22:36 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 8 | 19 | 27 | — | 35 | — | 4 | — | 19:53 | — | — | 112 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 · @ BOS | |||||
| P3 07:23 | EV | Assist | Connelly (Hanifin, Marner) → 2-2 | Karlsson · Barbashev · Marner · Gatcomb · Connelly McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin · Coghlan | Pastrnak · Zacha · Jeannot · Geekie · Khusnutdinov Lindholm · McAvoy · Aspirot · Lohrei Swayman (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ STL | |||||
| P2 05:38 | EV | Assist | Howden (Hanifin, Holtz) → 1-2 | Holtz · Howden · Karlsson Hanifin · Coghlan | Dvorsky · Berggren · McMichael Fowler · Carlo Hofer (G) |
| Oct 17 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 04:02 | EV | Goal | Hanifin (Eichel, Stone) → 2-0 | Dowd · Stone · Barbashev · Eichel · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin | Malkin · Novak · Dewar · Lizotte · Soderblom · Koivunen Letang · Girard · Korczak Murashov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Noah over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Coghlan VGK | 105 | 9 | |
| Mitch Marner VGK | 59 | 10 | |
| Brett Howden VGK | 54 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 53 | 10 | |
| William Karlsson VGK | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats