Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 49?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points6 × 0.5+3
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots90 × 0.1+9
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1551 × 0.01+15.5
- total82 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16682 = 49/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 82 points is 49 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for PHI — missed 1 game (2026-10-10).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.3% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.1% (1 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.9%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 15 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 7 | 32 | 38 | — | 40 | — | 2 | — | 18:44 | — | — | 96 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 15:07 | PP | Assist | Tippett (Dvorak, Bonk) → 3-2 | Couturier · Dvorak · Konecny · Acciari · Tippett · Foerster · Barkey Sanheim · York · Bonk | Backlund · Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Hanley · Middleton · Whitecloud · Nemec Cooley (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 05:35 | EV | Goal | Bonk (York, Couturier) → 5-1 | Couturier · Tippett · Cates · Foerster · Michkov · Martone Seeler · Benoit · York · Bonk | O'Brien · Schmaltz · Stenlund · Keller · McBain · Guenther Schmidt · Peeke · Sergachev · Duda Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P2 09:59 | EV | Assist | Cates (Martone, #?) → 1-3 | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Seeler | Sillinger · Monahan · Garland Christiansen · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Oct 21 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 03:03 | EV | Assist | Knuble (Bonk) → 3-1 | Couturier · Gaucher · Foerster · Bump · Knuble · Barkey Seeler · Sanheim · Drysdale · Bonk | Thompson · Quinn · Doan · Kulich · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin · Crevier · Metsa Luukkonen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Oliver over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam York PHI | 79 | 6 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 76 | 10 | |
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 64 | 10 | |
| Tyson Foerster PHI | 59 | 9 | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats