Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists69 × 1+69
- PP points46 × 0.5+23
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots218 × 0.1+21.8
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)2367 × 0.01+23.7
- total202 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166202 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 202 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for MIN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 11.5% shooting on 52 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.0% (1112 shots before this season) — that's 2.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.6%, worth PD +5.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Brodin 0.0%, Kaprizov 27.4%, Boldy 8.4%, Ek 9.4%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Canucks | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:05 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 68 | 8 | 45 | 53 | -10 | 22 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 21:53 | 2 | 1 | 126 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 56 | 3 | 38 | 41 | -24 | 22 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 22:48 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 76 | 8 | 60 | 68 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 25:15 | 1 | 1 | 150 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 78 | 7 | 69 | 76 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 25:40 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 82 | 17 | 75 | 92 | 38 | 38 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 24:41 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 68 | 16 | 60 | 76 | 2 | 29 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 25:44 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 26 | 2 | 21 | 23 | -10 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 27:26 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 48 | 5 | 48 | 53 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 27:54 | 1 | 0 | 113 | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 21 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 28:12 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 20 | 69 | 89 | — | 28 | — | 39 | — | 24:46 | — | — | 173 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Quinn Hughes (2025-25) · Adam Fox (2025-25) · Evan Bouchard (2025-25) · Cale Makar (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 09:55 | PP | Assist | #? (Hughes, Kaprizov) → 2-2 | Hartman · Kaprizov · Shabanov Hughes | Paul · Tverberg McCabe · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ MTL | |||||
| P4 00:21 | PP | Assist | Kaprizov (Boldy, Hughes) → 2-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Evans Carrier · Guhle Fowler (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 00:55 | EV | Assist | #? (Maatta, #?) → 1-0 | Ek · Brink Bogosian · Maatta | Kucherov · Guentzel · Point Cernak · D'Astous Hildeby (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 07:55 | PP | Assist | Kaprizov (Hughes, Boldy) → 1-0 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy · Shabanov Hughes | Goodrow Trouba · Nurse Askarov (G) |
| P2 14:15 | PP | Assist | #? (Kaprizov, Hughes) → 2-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Sherwood · Ostapchuk Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Quinn over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 181 | 10 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN | 171 | 10 | |
| Matt Boldy MIN | 167 | 10 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN | 145 | 10 | |
| Maxim Shabanov MIN | 80 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats